Key Takeaways
- On April 22, 2026, FHFA and HUD jointly announced that Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and FHA will accept VantageScore 4.0 and FICO 10T for mortgage underwriting, ending the single-model era.
- The mandate follows Fannie Mae’s November 2025 Selling Guide update removing the 620 minimum score from Desktop Underwriter, giving the three credit bureaus a structural revenue tailwind on trended-data products.
- TransUnion (NYSE:TRU), Equifax (NYSE:EFX), Experian (OTC:EXPGY), Upstart Holdings (NASDAQ:UPST) and OneMain Holdings (NYSE:OMF) sit at five distinct points on the rollout.
A Discrete Catalyst, Not A Theme
The credit score modernization trade stopped being a thesis on April 22, 2026. FHFA Director Bill Pulte and HUD Secretary Scott Turner confirmed that FHA, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would accept VantageScore 4.0 immediately through a rollout to 21 lenders, with FICO 10T behind it. The decision layered onto Fannie Mae’s November 2025 Selling Guide change, which stripped the 620 minimum from Desktop Underwriter.
The private market was already moving. By February 2026, more than 40 lenders had joined the FICO Score 10T Adopter Program for non-conforming loans, and Cardinal Financial traded the first VA MBS pool decisioned with 10T in late 2024. Both models require 24 to 30 months of payment history rather than a single-month snapshot, so every origination pulls a richer, more margin-accretive data package from each bureau. A plain-language scoring model primer covers what the models penalize or reward.
TransUnion: US Markets Doing The Work
TransUnion(NYSE:TRU) reported Q4 2025 revenue of $1,171 million, up 13%, with US Markets revenue up 16% and adjusted diluted EPS of $1.07 versus $0.97. Management guided 8% to 9% organic growth for 2026. The stock trades near a P/E of 33.8 with a market cap around $15 billion. The catalyst is whether US Markets growth holds in the mid-teens as 10T volumes print; risks include Neustar integration slippage and any pullback in originations.
Equifax: The Post-Cloud Monetization Quarter
Equifax(NYSE:EFX) posted Q4 2025 revenue of $1,551 million, up 9%, even as management flagged softer US hiring and mortgage markets. The Vitality Index, which tracks revenue from new products, hit a record 17% against a 10% long-term target. Free cash flow reached $1.13 billion, up 40%, with FCF conversion at 120%. Benzinga’s analyst views roundup tracks where the Street sits.
A completed $3 billion cloud migration and the EFX.AI layer position Equifax to sell the trended-payment datasets 10T underwriting depends on. Each approved lender is an incremental buyer; the risk is soft mortgage volumes offsetting the mix benefit.
Experian: The Accelerating North America Print
Experian(OTC:EXPGY) has shown the cleanest North America acceleration of the three. FY25 full-year results posted 7% total organic growth with 8% North America organic growth, and H1 FY26 results delivered 10% organic growth in North America. Ascend, the Experian analytics platform built on trended credit data, is what lenders build new scorecards on. EXPGY trades at a P/E in the low thirties, in line with EFX and TRU. The differentiator is whether North America holds 9% to 10% organic through the next two prints.
The Lender Funnel: Upstart And OneMain
Trended data cuts both ways for lenders. A 24-month lookback prices risk more accurately for thin-file borrowers, widening the top of the funnel for lenders whose models weigh alternative data. It also penalizes revolving-balance patterns and short-horizon paydowns, which can shrink qualification for borrowers who previously gamed a static FICO score.
Upstart Holdings(NASDAQ:UPST) delivered Q4 2025 revenue of $296 million, up 35%, with transaction volume of $3.2 billion and conversion up to 19.4% from 18.0%. Automated funding hit 91% of loans. The 10T shift aligns with Upstart’s AI-native model, though the premium multiple leaves little room for a stall.
OneMain Holdings(NYSE:OMF) reported Q4 2025 revenue of $1.6 billion, up 8%, with diluted EPS of $1.72 versus $1.05. BrightWay credit card receivables grew to $936 million across nearly 1.1 million accounts, and managed receivables reached $26.3 billion. OMF trades at a lower multiple than UPST. For OneMain, trended data is less about funnel expansion and more about whether refreshed scorecards change mix on new originations.
What To Track Through The Next Cycle
The bureaus report Q1 2026 on a rolling schedule from mid-April, the first quarter to partially capture revenue from the April 22 announcement.
Signals to watch: US or North America organic growth, mortgage and HELOC segment revenue, and direct commentary on 10T or VantageScore 4.0 uptake. For UPST and OMF, the tell is whether approval rates shift as lenders rebuild scorecards. FICO disclosures on the FICO quote page fill out the rest. The rollout cadence is public, and the next two earnings seasons will show how cleanly the trade prints.
image credit: Author
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