The U.S. Energy Information Administration has kept its fuel ethanol production forecasts unchanged for 2026 and 2027, while slightly increasing its projections for exports and consumption in 2027, according to its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook released on April 7, Ethanol Producer Magazine reported.
The agency expects fuel ethanol production to average 1.09 million barrels per day in 2026, rising to 1.1 million barrels per day in 2027. These estimates remain the same as those issued in March. For comparison, production averaged 1.08 million barrels per day in 2025.
On a quarterly basis, output is projected to reach 1.06 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026, increasing to 1.08 million in the third quarter and 1.12 million in the fourth quarter. In 2027, production is expected to average 1.09 million barrels per day in the first and second quarters, 1.1 million in the third quarter and 1.14 million in the final quarter.
The EIA also maintained its outlook for net ethanol imports at -150,000 barrels per day in 2026. However, it revised its 2027 estimate to -170,000 barrels per day, compared to -160,000 barrels per day projected earlier. Net imports stood at -140,000 barrels per day in 2025.
In terms of consumption, the agency continues to expect fuel ethanol use to average 930,000 barrels per day in 2026. For 2027, it has raised its forecast to 940,000 barrels per day, up from the earlier estimate of 930,000 barrels per day. Ethanol consumption averaged 940,000 barrels per day in 2025.