On April 9, 2026, more than 2.49 crore voters across Assam's 126 Assembly constituencies will cast their ballots in a single phase - a historic first for a State that has always voted in multiple rounds.
The stakes are high: will the BJP-led NDA secure a third consecutive term, or will the Congress, led by Gaurav Gogoi, end what has been one of India's most dramatic regional political transformations of the past decade?
From unseating the Congress and former Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi's exit in 2016 to the replacement of Sarbananda Sonowal with Himanta Biswa Sarma as Chief Minister in 2021, the State has witnessed several political turns in the last few elections.
Assam's political history since 1985 has moved through three distinct phases: the rise of regionalism, a long period of Congress dominance, and the consolidation of the BJP-led alliance.
Here is how Assam has voted in the past elections:
The 1985 election marked a pivotal moment, coming on the heels of the Assam Accord. The Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), born out of the anti-foreigner movement, swept to power in the State. This was the first time a regional party unseated the Congress in the State. Following its rise to power, the AGP struggled with internal divisions, factionalism and governance challenges. After its first tenure (1985-1990), which ended with the imposition of President's Rule, the party was hit by splits, notably in 1991 and 2005. The AGP formed the government in 1996.
Under the leadership of Tarun Gogoi, the Congress achieved a record 15 consecutive years in power. This period was characterised by political stability and the party consolidating minority votes. The emergence of the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) in 2006 eventually challenged this, but the Congress maintained its lead through 2011.
The rise of the BJP in 2016 altered the State's arithmetic as the party's tally rose from 10 in 1991 to 60 in 2016.
Various factors are attributed to the party's success in the State. Joining hands with the AGP and the Bodoland People's Front (BPF) to consolidate the "indigenous" votes and focusing on the protection of "Jati-Mati-Bheti" (community/identity, land, and home//base) are key among them.
The defection of Sarma from the Congress to the BJP in 2015 was a pivotal moment for the saffron party as it brought a shift in tactical governance. The party rewarded him by making him the Chief Minister in 2021.
The disconnect
Assam often exhibits a disconnect between the number of seats the parties win and their vote share.
In 2016, the Congress got a higher vote share (30.9%) than the BJP (29.51%), but the latter's better alliance mapping allowed it to win more than double the seats. The BJP won 60 seats with 29.51% vote share and 49,92,185 votes. The Congress won 26 seats with 30.96% vote share and 52,38,655 votes.
The BJP romped home in the election despite having a lower vote share than the Congress, thanks to its alliance with the AGP and the BPF.
The moot question remains
The issue of who belongs in Assam has been the moot question in every election. The AGP was born from it. The Congress governed the State despite it. The BJP has been accused of "weaponising" the issue through the National Register of Citizens (NRC) and the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019.
Now, as the State is all set for another election, with the NRC still incomplete and the CAA notifications pending, the issue remains as unresolved as it was four decades ago.
The difference today is that the BJP has moved the issue from regional grievance to national Hindu-nationalist framing, absorbing the AGP's original voter base and leaving the party as a diminished junior partner.