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Gold ETFs are changing - should investors care?

Gold ETFs are changing - should investors care?

Deccan Herald 3 weeks ago

Gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in India are undergoing a subtle but important shift. With asset managers now permitted to use exchange-traded commodity derivatives (ETCDs) as part of their strategy, what was once seen as a straightforward proxy for physical gold is becoming a more flexible - if slightly more complex - investment product.

This evolution comes at a time when investor assumptions are already being tested. Gold, traditionally viewed as a counterbalance to equities, has in recent months moved in the same direction as stock markets. Together, these developments raise a natural question: do gold ETFs still offer the same safety and diversification benefits, or is it time for investors to reassess what they hold?

The cautious answer lies not in the presence of derivatives, but in how they are used - sparingly, within limits, and with the objective of maintaining continuity in gold exposure rather than altering it.

From physical proxy to price-tracking efficiency

Gold ETFs have long been positioned as the closest alternative to holding physical gold - without the logistical burdens of storage, insurance, or purity concerns. That core proposition remains intact. Regulations continue to anchor these funds overwhelmingly to gold and gold-related instruments.

What has changed is not the asset, but the pathway to accessing it. ETCDs are essentially financial contracts - typically futures - traded on exchanges that track gold prices. Instead of holding the metal, the fund may hold these instruments to replicate gold's price movement, especially when sourcing physical gold is inefficient or constrained. This does not change the nature of the investment - it remains linked to gold, not to corporate earnings or equity market behaviour. What it does introduce is a more efficient way of maintaining exposure, with a modest increase in complexity that investors should be aware of, but not unduly concerned about.

When war does not move gold

This marks a subtle but important evolution. Gold ETFs are shifting from being purely 'asset-backed' vehicles to becoming more efficient 'price-tracking' instruments. Used judiciously, such flexibility can improve liquidity, reduce friction, and ensure that the fund continues to track gold prices even under less-than-ideal market conditions.

Gold investing in India has, in that sense, followed a steady arc of evolution. From the traditional preference for holding physical gold - rooted in security and cultural familiarity - the market moved towards gold ETFs, which offered a more convenient and transparent way to access the same asset without the burdens of storage. The introduction of ETCDs marks the next stage in this progression: not a departure from gold, but a shift towards more efficient, market-linked access to its price. Each step has reduced friction and improved accessibility, even as it has gradually increased the level of financial sophistication involved.

Does flexibility change the risk profile?

The introduction of derivatives inevitably raises questions about risk. Here, it is important to separate perception from reality.

Gold ETFs are not being repositioned as hybrid or equity-like products. ETCDs do not represent ownership in businesses or earnings streams; they are contracts linked to the price of gold. Their behaviour remains anchored to the commodity, not to corporate performance or stock market sentiment.

That said, the investor experience does become marginally more complex. A gold ETF is no longer a simple mirror of physical gold prices; it becomes a managed construct that may use different instruments to achieve the same outcome. This can introduce minor variations - such as tracking differences, costs associated with rolling derivative positions, or short-term deviations during volatile conditions.

In extreme scenarios, financial instruments may not replicate the immediacy of physical gold perfectly. But these are differences of degree, not direction. Regulatory limits, disclosure norms, and fund mandates ensure that derivatives remain a tool for efficiency, not a vehicle for speculation.

That said, the use of derivatives places a greater premium on fund management expertise and investor awareness. These are not instruments that lend themselves to casual understanding; their effectiveness depends on how judiciously they are used within the fund. For investors, the reassurance lies less in the tool itself and more in the discipline with which it is deployed.

When gold and equities move together

Gold, traditionally seen as a hedge against equities, has at times moved in the same direction as stock markets - declining alongside them rather than offsetting losses.

This is not as unusual as it appears. The relationship between asset classes is not fixed; it shifts with broader macroeconomic conditions. In periods of tightening global liquidity or rising real interest rates, multiple asset classes can come under pressure simultaneously. Investors seeking to reduce risk or raise cash may sell across the board, including gold.

Such phases do not invalidate gold's role. Over longer cycles, gold functions less as a perfect hedge and more as a diversifier - an asset that behaves differently across economic regimes rather than consistently moving in opposition to equities. Its value lies in providing resilience during periods of currency weakness, geopolitical uncertainty, or systemic stress.

Seen in this context, temporary co-movement with equities does not diminish gold's relevance. It simply underscores that diversification works over time, not in every moment.

What investors should do differently

For retail investors, the implication is not to step away from gold, but to engage with it more thoughtfully.

First, the simplicity that once defined gold ETFs is giving way to a more layered structure. This makes it important to pay closer attention to fund disclosures, strategy notes, and the extent to which derivatives are used. Differences in fund management approach may begin to matter more than before.

Second, the presence of ETCDs should be viewed in context. They are a mechanism to improve efficiency and ensure continuity, not a signal of aggressive positioning. The underlying exposure remains firmly tied to gold.

Third, short-term price behaviour should not drive long-term decisions. Gold's role in a portfolio is not to deliver returns like equities, but to provide balance against uncertainty - whether in the form of inflation, currency depreciation, or geopolitical risk.

Finally, allocation discipline remains key. A measured exposure - typically in the range of 5 to 10% of a portfolio - can serve as a stabilising element without compromising overall growth potential. However, such allocation must be approached with care, calibrated to an investor's individual risk profile, time horizon, and broader financial goals, rather than applied as a uniform rule of thumb.

For investors, this is not a moment for concern, but for understanding. The tools may be becoming more sophisticated, but the purpose remains the same. In an uncertain world, gold continues to hold its place - not as a relic of the past, but as a steady anchor in modern portfolios.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Readers are advised to consult a registered financial adviser before making any investment decisions.

Srinath Sridharan is a corporate adviser and independent director on corporate boards. X: @ssmumbai.

(Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH)

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