In its first monetary policy review of the fiscal to be announced on Wednesday, the RBI is likely to keep key interest rates unchanged amid the West Asia conflict, which is expected to hit growth and lead to higher inflationary pressure.
The three-day meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) concludes on Wednesday. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra, who is the ex-officio head of the six-member rate-setting panel, is scheduled to announce the MPC decisions.
Analysts said the MPC is expected to adopt a cautious approach and keep key policy rates unchanged.
"As the situation is still evolving, we expect RBI to maintain the status quo in the upcoming policy," SBI Research said.
Rupee strengthens 1.6% to settle at 93.18 against USD after RBI measuresIn the December 2025 monetary policy statement, Malhotra had used the phrase "goldilocks" to describe India's strong macroeconomic fundamentals with GDP growth of over 8% and headline inflation below 2 per cent.
Analysts underline the goldilocks moment has faded due to the conflict and it would be reflected in the Governor's statement on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has underlined that the government's prudent fiscal management has created room for the RBI to cut rates. "India has fiscal space - room to maintain our capex programme, room for the RBI to cut rates," Sitharaman remarked at an event on Monday.
"While maintaining macroeconomic stability remains critical, the central bank must also balance growth support with inflation control. In this context, a 25 bps rate cut would provide timely support to the broader economy, including the real estate sector," said Pradeep Aggarwal, Founder and Chairman, Signature Global (India) Ltd.