The Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam (106th Constitutional Amendment, 2023), providing for a 33 per cent reservation for women in the Lok Sabha, was passed unanimously by Parliament. However, the Modi government now wants to take sole credit, suggesting that the Opposition does not favour its early implementation. The Opposition, however, only wants the latest census (delayed from 2021) to be completed before delimitation to increase the number of seats in the Lok Sabha.

That the Modi government wants to leverage early implementation for immediate electoral purposes is also clear. The Opposition wanted the implementation to be discussed after April 29, when polling for the Assembly elections will be over. The Modi government, however, wants to go ahead with it before polling - trying to attract women voters in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu.

The early implementation of women's reservation may reflect a political necessity for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) after the setback of 2024, when it fell short of a simple majority - falling from 300-plus seats in 2019 to 240. The 2024 general elections showed that the BJP juggernaut could be checked by parties based on caste coalitions and regional sentiments.

The BJP hopes that 33% reservation of seats for women will consolidate their support to offset other losses. The early implementation of women's reservation is then damage control packaged as empowerment of women. Implementing the Bill is not only a matter of policy, it's also meant to allow Modi to occupy the high moral ground and project himself as the architect of historic change, furbishing his prime ministerial legacy.

Significantly, the implementation of women's reservation is tied to the delimitations of constituencies, increasing the Lok Sabha seats to 850. One-third of these, or about 281-283 seats, will be reserved for women. The determination of new constituencies, however, will be based on population, and that requires detailed data. Earlier, delimitation was to be done after the 2021 Census (belatedly underway now) was completed. Now, it seems, delimitation will be carried out based on the outdated 2011 Census.

The use of outdated census data has been criticised by the southern states, who fear that the delimitation exercise will lock political representation to old and outdated demographic patterns that favour the northern states because of their historically higher fertility rates and population growth. These are also the states where the BJP predominates. The southern states, which have had a slower population growth because of better women's education and successful family planning, would see fewer new seats compared to the north.

There will be an additional political advantage to the BJP in the north, where its major challengers are caste-based parties. Seat expansion and women's reservation will break the male-dominated caste hierarchies of these parties. Forcing patriarchal and dynastic parties to field women leaders from OBCs, Dalits, and the minority community could fragment their traditional caste-based vote banks.

Modi has assured southern states that Lok Sabha seats will be increased proportionately so that they are not penalised for their demographic discipline. However, southern leaders have argued that even with the expansion of seats, northern states will gain disproportionately and could skew political power further in favour of the north and further dilute the political influence of the south. In any case, the BJP's gains in the south are unlikely to be significant because of its weak base, and women's reservation alone is not likely to overturn regional loyalties. However, the BJP hopes that the electoral impact of women's reservation will help it regain clear majorities in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, where electoral margins are decisive.

Another aspect of women's reservation which may upset the Opposition is the provision for rotation of the reserved seats. The power of the caste-based and regional parties rests on long-held seats, local power structures, and continuity of dynastic politics. Fielding women candidates could upset power equations unless political dynasties adapt by promoting the daughters, wives, sisters, or daughters-in-law of male incumbents from the reserved seats.

Rotation could upset regional parties because they depend on charismatic leaders and loyal constituencies. As rotation would prevent these parties from locking down the same seat election after election for the same candidate, they may have to broaden their appeal beyond personalities and specific caste bases.

The BJP may be better placed to take advantage in such a scenario as the party already has organised women's wings and considerable organisational depth. It can present reservation as continuation of its women-centric welfare schemes such as Ujjwala, Beti Bachao, etc. Further, its multi-state presence allows the BJP to accommodate influential displaced candidates by moving them to the Rajya Sabha - something that the regional parties cannot do as easily.

It remains an open question though whether using old census data for gerrymandering of constituencies will help the BJP. Past experience suggests mixed results. In 2023, the Election Commission of India conducted delimitation of Assembly constituencies based on 2001 Census data in Assam. In the redrawing of constituencies, Muslim majority seats were reduced from about 35 to about 20. Critics claimed that this was aimed at reducing the influence of minority voters and consolidating the BJP 's position in Hindu-majority areas. The results of this exercise will be reflected in the ongoing Assam election results.

The delimitation of constituencies in Jammu & Kashmir in 2022 attracted widespread criticism for the same reason. Yet its electoral benefits for the BJP were mixed. Its overall electoral advantage was limited, helping the party to consolidate in Jammu but bringing no gains in the Valley.

The best-case scenario of the women's reservation exercise for Modi would be that the BJP regains majority in 2029, his stature is legitimised once again, and implementing women's reservation is seen as a historic reform and not opportunism. However, it may also backfire if the Opposition successfully presents it as a Hindi-belt power grab and opportunistic damage control by a weakened leader - a political gimmick and a tactical ploy to stay relevant. The BJP may gain in the north Indian states, but it may continue facing resistance in the south, leading to internal turbulence in India.

(Bharat Bhushan is a Delhi-based journalist)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.