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Infra surge, economic lag: Why Northeast growth model needs a rethink

Infra surge, economic lag: Why Northeast growth model needs a rethink

EastMojo 1 month ago

India's push to integrate the Northeast with regional and global value chains is beginning to show structural gains, but the latest government data suggests that outcomes remain uneven, with infrastructure expansion outpacing measurable economic transformation.

A set of replies tabled in the Lok Sabha on April 1 by the Ministry of Development of North Eastern Region (MDoNER) provides a granular look at how the government's "Act East Policy" and associated development programmes are playing out on the ground-across connectivity, funding, entrepreneurship and project execution.

The government has sharply scaled up physical connectivity in the region over the past decade. National highway length has expanded from 10,905 km in 2014 to over 16,200 km by March 2025, while nearly 46,300 km of rural roads have been built under PMGSY.

Railway allocations have risen nearly fivefold compared with the 2009-14 period, and 90 regional air routes have been operationalised under the UDAN scheme.

Digital and telecom connectivity has also improved, with more than 6,300 gram panchayats now service-ready for high-speed internet and over 3,700 mobile towers commissioned, covering thousands of villages.

This expansion reflects a deliberate policy shift: connectivity is no longer viewed merely as infrastructure creation, but as a backbone for integrating industrial clusters, agricultural value chains and cross-border trade under the Act East framework.

Yet, the government's own assessment stops short of quantifying large-scale trade or export gains, instead noting that infrastructure investments are "creating the necessary conditions" for economic benefits to materialise.

This distinction is critical. It suggests that while the enabling architecture is being built, the transition from connectivity to sustained economic output-particularly exports and industrial growth-remains a work in progress.

Spending, Execution and Emerging Gaps

Public spending has been substantial. Under the 10% Gross Budgetary Support mechanism, cumulative expenditure in the Northeast reached ₹6.11 lakh crore between 2014-15 and 2024-25.

At the ministry level, annual allocations have fluctuated sharply over the past five years. While revised estimates rose to ₹5,849 crore in 2023-24, actual expenditure lagged at ₹1,944 crore that year, before improving in subsequent years.

This gap between allocation and utilisation highlights a persistent structural issue: project execution capacity. Delays in fund absorption often reflect land acquisition hurdles, terrain challenges and administrative bottlenecks-factors that have historically slowed development in the region.

To address this, the government has intensified monitoring. Since October 2025, all 271 projects under the North Eastern Council have undergone physical inspections and weekly reviews, leading to improved closure timelines.

In parallel, a data analytics dashboard now tracks over 3,700 projects worth roughly ₹49,000 crore, aiming to bring transparency and real-time oversight to implementation.

Government-backed programmes are generating employment, but largely through indirect channels. Infrastructure projects have created both direct and ancillary jobs, while skill development initiatives have improved employability, particularly among youth and women, according to a third-party evaluation by IIM Shillong.

However, the start-up ecosystem-often seen as a key driver of local economic dynamism-remains small.

The North East Venture Fund (NEVF) has supported just 21 start-ups over the past three years, with ₹16.76 crore disbursed.

Even so, these enterprises have reportedly generated around 10,000 jobs, suggesting a high employment multiplier, albeit from a low base.

The sectoral spread-ranging from food processing and e-commerce to biotechnology and defence-indicates diversification, but the scale of investment remains modest relative to the region's needs.

Distribution, Sustainability and the Road Ahead

Under the North East Special Infrastructure Development Scheme (NESIDS), 232 projects worth over ₹8,300 crore have been sanctioned across states. Assam leads in total project value, followed by Arunachal Pradesh and Tripura.

The restructuring of the scheme into road and non-road components reflects a shift towards more balanced infrastructure development, including social and economic assets beyond transport.

Still, disparities persist. Larger states continue to attract a disproportionate share of funding, raising questions about equitable distribution and the ability of smaller states to absorb and implement projects.

The government has emphasised that infrastructure development in the ecologically fragile Northeast is being pursued through a "sustainability lens", incorporating renewable energy, afforestation and watershed management.

This is particularly significant given concerns that large-scale projects-especially in border and hill areas-could exacerbate displacement or environmental stress.

Programmes under the North Eastern Council now include climate-resilient infrastructure and eco-restoration components, alongside participatory governance frameworks aimed at involving local communities.

However, the effectiveness of these safeguards will likely depend on implementation quality, an area where the region has historically faced challenges.

Taken together, the data points to a clear trajectory: the North East is undergoing a state-led infrastructure transformation, backed by significant fiscal resources and policy focus.

But the next phase-translating connectivity into sustained economic output, private investment and export growth-remains the real test.

The government's own language underscores this transition. The emphasis is no longer just on building roads or laying tracks, but on embedding the region into national and international value chains.

Whether that ambition is realised will depend less on the scale of spending, and more on execution, institutional capacity and the ability to catalyse private sector participation in a region long constrained by geography and history.

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