Asian Paints share price in focus: Shares of the country's largest paint maker are likely to remain in spotlight after a strong Q4FY26 performance, prompting mixed brokerage reactions with target prices indicating up to 29 per cent upside potential.

The company reported nearly 11 per cent year-on-year revenue growth, alongside robust margin expansion and double-digit volume gains. While several analysts remain bullish on sustained demand and pricing power, others have flagged rising input cost pressures and intensifying competition as key risks going ahead.

Brokerages On Asian Paints

Goldman Sachs on Asian Paints

• Maintain Sell
• Target price Rs 2,575 vs Rs 2,275
• Q4FY26 net sales up 10.6% year on year and EBITDA up 24.4% year on year; both ahead of estimates
• Volume growth highest in over 8 quarters at 12.3% year on year; gross margins expanded 90 basis points
• Price hike of around 11% taken but flagged as insufficient to fully pass on cost inflation; further hikes being evaluated
• Management guided high single-digit volume growth in first half of FY27 with 15-17% revenue growth
• First half FY27 margins guided at 18-20%; key risk is inflation-led downtrading weighing on volumes
• FY27 and FY28 EPS estimates raised 13% and 9% on faster revenue growth and margin resilience

Elara Capital on Asian Paints

• Maintain Accumulate
• Target price Rs 2,900 vs Rs 2,700
• Q4FY26 net sales up 10.6% year on year; India decorative volume and value growth at 12.4% and 10.2%
• EBITDA up 24.4% year on year; around 13% beat vs Elara estimate; gross margin expanded 87 basis points to 44.8%
• Demand improved across rural and urban with rural ahead; premium and luxury mix moving up
• Management guiding 8-10% volume growth; volume-value gap to settle at 3-4% from earlier 5-6%
• Q1 input cost inflation at around 20%; 11% price hike taken; 18-20% margin guidance maintained
• FY27 and FY28 estimates raised 7-9% on better revenue growth and margins
• Valued at 50 times March 2028 estimated EPS unchanged

Morgan Stanley on Asian Paints

• Maintain Underweight
• Target price Rs 2,253
• Q4FY26 strong with double-digit revenue growth across all three months
• Price hikes of 10.5-11% taken in Q1FY27; management estimates 20% needed to fully counter inflation
• EBITDA margin guidance retained at 18-20% via hikes, premiumisation and cost rationalisation
• Competitive intensity remains high; discounting unchanged; pressure from existing and new players
• Structurally negative: paint segment in de-rating environment as moats dilute and growth predictability weakens
• Near-term pricing support may offer tactical earnings upside but structural de-rating thesis maintained

Citi on Asian Paints

• Maintain Sell
• Target price Rs 2,500 vs Rs 2,300
• Strong quarter but setup weak; margin risks rising into FY27
• Volume growth benefited from a low base and channel stocking ahead of price hikes
• Raw material inflation at around 20%; cumulative price hike of 10.4% taken but management will not pass on full inflation impact
• Competitive intensity remains elevated; discounting unchanged from existing and new players
• Players likely to protect volumes at cost of margins; could reset margins and returns at lower levels
• FY27 and FY28 revenue estimates raised around 11%; EPS raised 3-6% given margin compression
• Valued at 45 times March 2028 estimated EPS vs earlier December 2027 base

Nuvama on Asian Paints

• Maintain Buy with target price of Rs 3,470
• Decorative paint volumes grew 12.4%, the strongest growth in 12 quarters.
• Revenue and EBITDA exceeded estimates, supported by strong domestic demand.
• Volume-value gap narrowed to 2%, aided by premium products and pricing.
• Company implemented cumulative price hikes of around 10%, with further increases.
• Gross margin reached multi-quarter highs, supported by raw material deflation.
• EBITDA margin expanded strongly despite elevated competition across the paints industry.
• Rural markets outperformed urban markets, with demand improving across regions.
• Industrial coatings continued outperforming decorative paints, driven by manufacturing activity.
• International business delivered healthy growth, led by Sri Lanka, UAE and Egypt.
• Premium and PreLux portfolios gained traction, improving realizations and product mix.
• Competitive intensity remains very high, with elevated discounting across the industry.
• Management guides 8-10% decorative volume growth and 18-20% EBITDA margin.
• VAM-VAE backward integration project remains on track for FY27 commissioning.

Asian Paints Q4 results FY26 (Consolidated, YoY)

Asian Paints, the country's largest paint maker, reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 1,185.4 crore for the January-March quarter of FY26, marking a growth of 69 per cent YoY from Rs 700.8 crore net profit posted in the corresponding quarter of the previous financial year.

The paint-maker's revenue from operations rose around 10.6 per cent YoY to Rs 9,246.7 crore during Q4 FY26, from Rs 8,358.9 crore in the year-ago period. Asian Paints' Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EBITDA) reported a 24.4 per cent YoY surge to come in at Rs 1,786 cr for Q4 FY26 against Rs 1,436 crore posted in the year-ago period. EBITDA margin improved to 19.3 per cent in the reporting quarter from 17.2 per cent in the same quarter of the previous year.

The company's total income rose more than 11 per cent YoY to Rs 9,418 crore during the fourth quarter of FY26. Total expenses, meanwhile, rose nearly 8 per cent YoY to Rs 7,829.17 crore during the reporting quarter.
"Q4FY26 performance was a quarter of all-around performance, with double-digit volume and value growth and margin expansion. The quarter witnessed improvement in the domestic decorative business with the business delivering a 12.4 per cent growth in volume and 10.2 per cent growth in value terms," it said.