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Cipla share price in focus: Company reports mixed Q4FY26; Brokerages remain bullish, see up to 22% upside on long-term growth triggers

Cipla share price in focus: Company reports mixed Q4FY26; Brokerages remain bullish, see up to 22% upside on long-term growth triggers

ETNow.in 1 week ago

Cipla share price: The company's stock price is likely to remain in focus after the company reported a mixed performance for Q4FY26, with revenue and profitability coming in below expectations due to weakness in the US business and margin pressures.

Despite the softer quarter, brokerages have largely maintained a constructive view on the stock, pointing to strong domestic traction, a gradually improving US pipeline, and long-term growth triggers. Several analysts continue to see meaningful upside potential of up to 22% from current levels, supported by expected recovery in margins, ramp-up in respiratory launches, and steady execution in key markets over the coming years.

Brokerages On Cipla

Motilal Oswal On Cipla

  • Maintain Neutral with a TP of Rs 1380 (earlier 1307)
  • Weak US flow; strong India show
  • US growth to pick up from 2HFY27 onwards
  • Product mix and reduced operating leverage drag profitability YoY
  • Momentum in DF/SAGA offset by subdued performance in US/EM/API
  • Strategic market expansion efforts continue to drive traction
  • Reduce earnings estimate by 10% for FY27

Morgan Stanley on Cipla

  • Maintain Underweight
  • Target price: Rs 1,218
  • Revenue and EBITDA miss estimates by 3% and 10% respectively
  • EBITDA margin declines 250bps QoQ to 15.2%
  • Brokerage cuts FY27 EPS estimate by 10.7%
  • US pipeline strengthening with multiple respiratory and peptide filings
  • Management guides FY27 EBITDA margin at 18.5-20%
  • MS says FY27 remains a transition year for the company

Goldman Sachs on Cipla

  • Maintain Neutral
  • Target price: Rs 1,350 (vs Rs 1,325 earlier)
  • Q4 sales decline 3% YoY due to gRevlimid cliff and supply constraints
  • EBITDA margin at 14.6%
  • Management aspires to achieve US$1bn exit-rate in US business
  • FY27 EBITDA margin guidance lowered to 18.5-20%
  • Brokerage revises FY27-29 EPS estimates by -2% to +4%
  • GS maintains Neutral citing balanced risk-reward

Citi on Cipla

  • Maintain Buy
  • Target price raised to Rs1,700 from Rs1,530
  • Brokerage says FY27 outlook robust but realistic
  • India business grows ~15% YoY in Q4
  • US sales at US$155mn despite gRevlimid and Lanreotide phase-out
  • Management guides for US$1bn exit run-rate in FY27
  • FY27 EBITDA margin guidance at 18.5-20% seen achievable
  • Citi says FY28 EBITDA margin can exceed 21% if pipeline execution remains on track
  • Brokerage maintains positive stance citing reasonable valuations and visibility on margins and growth

Emkay on Cipla

  • Target Price: Rs 1,450
  • Revised from: Rs 1,350
  • Rating: Upgraded to ADD from Reduce
  • TP raised ~7% as downside risk now looks limited from current market price
  • Q4 EBITDA margin missed expectations, but gross margin beat was a key positive
  • Domestic sales beat driven by in-licensed brands; Emkay says this has been Cipla's growth trend for last 2 years and likely continues in FY27
  • US sales were in line, giving comfort on base business ex-Lanreotide and ex-gRevlimid (no negative surprise seen as positive)
  • Key concern remains delays in inhalation approvals, but Emkay notes these products are already baked into Street FY27/28 estimates
  • FY27 EBITDA margin guidance of 18.5-20% suggests risk of further earnings cuts still exists
  • However, stress test for further approval delays shows limited downside from CMP
  • Emkay believes once approvals start coming through, stock bottom-catching will be difficult


Nirmal Bang on Cipla

  • Target Price: Rs 1,404
  • Upside: 5.7%
  • Rating: Downgraded to HOLD from BUY
  • Q4FY26 performance missed estimates on revenue and EBITDA margins
  • Weakness driven by lower Lenalidomide contribution and no Lanreotide sales (regulatory issue at partner site)
  • Profitability also hit by higher R&D spends and US manufacturing readiness investments
  • India business stayed strong: +15% YoY to Rs 30.1 bn, led by branded Rx, trade generics, and consumer health
  • Growth supported by chronic therapies outperformance and differentiated launches
  • US business expected to ramp up sharply in FY27, driven by respiratory launches like gVentolin
  • Management targets exiting FY27 at ~USD 1 bn US revenue run-rate (ex-Lanreotide), mainly in 2HFY27
  • Brokerage remains positive structurally on India + US respiratory pipeline, but sees near-term pressure due to higher R&D and gradual launch ramp-up
  • Earnings estimates cut; valuation at 22x FY28E EPS, TP set at Rs 1,404


Nuvama on Cipla

  • Target Price: Rs 1,550, Revised up from: Rs 1,280
  • Rating: Upgraded to BUY from REDUCE
  • Q4FY26 missed consensus: Revenue -2%, EBITDA -10%, adj PAT -23%
  • EBITDA margin at 15.2%, below estimates due to higher R&D spend (7.8% of sales) and weak US contribution
  • Upgrade driven by valuation: trades at 21x PE, ~15% discount to 1-year average forward PE
  • Brokerage sees comfort from FY28 margin outlook, easing capex, and strong net cash balance sheet
  • Positive view on high-value / respiratory launch opportunities ahead
  • Import alert concerns at Pharmathen Rodopi now seen as addressed
  • FY27E EPS revised up by 5%; PE multiple raised to 24x
  • Stock currently at 23x FY27E and 20x FY28E EPS

Cipla Q4FY26

CIPLA Q4 (cons YoY)

  • Revenue at Rs. 6541 cr vs Rs. 6730 cr, down -2.8% YoY
  • Net Profit at Rs. 555 cr vs Rs. 1222 cr, down -54.6% YoY
  • EBITDA at Rs. 955 cr vs Rs. 1538 cr, down -37.9% YoY
  • EBITDA Margin at 14.6% vs 22.8%, down -825 bps YoY
  • FY26 Revenues down 2.8%, mgmt guided for -3%
  • EBITDA margin at 23%, beat guidance of 21%

Highlights:

  • Acquired 100% stake in Inzpera Healthsciences Limited (completed December 2025) for `110.65 Cr, generating goodwill of `66.70 Cr
  • Board approved merger of Inzpera into Cipla (subject to NCLT approval)
  • Impairment of `42.02 Cr (consolidated) recorded on investments in associates
  • Exceptional item of `275.91 Cr from India's new Labour Codes
  • Basic EPS: `48.03 vs `65.29 in the prior year
  • Board recommended a final dividend of `13 per equity share

MGMT COMMENTARY:

  • FY26 revenue hit record high of ₹28,163 crore
  • Core businesses strong despite near-term challenges
  • One-India business crossed ₹12,500 crore annual revenue milestone
  • US growth supported by differentiated portfolio and steady base
  • One Africa growth driven by strong key market performance
  • Emerging Markets and Europe crossed USD 400 million+ annualised revenue
  • Focus ahead: grow key markets and build flagship brands, invest in future pipeline and resolve regulatory issues

(Disclaimer: The above article is meant for informational purposes only, and should not be considered as any investment advice. ET NOW DIGITAL suggests its readers/audience to consult their financial advisors before making any money related decisions.)

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