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EXCLUSIVE: Nifty to hit 30000? Market expert Jay Bala bets big on defence, realty and capital goods | Video

EXCLUSIVE: Nifty to hit 30000? Market expert Jay Bala bets big on defence, realty and capital goods | Video

ETNow.in 2 weeks ago

Indian equity markets may be moving in a narrow range at the moment, but market expert Jay Bala believes the broader trend remains firmly bullish.

Markets Still Bullish Despite Volatility

The trading session remained largely range-bound, with the Nifty hovering above the 24300 mark while broader markets continued to outperform. Midcap and smallcap indices posted stronger gains compared to benchmark indices, indicating that risk appetite remains intact beneath the surface.

Jay Bala said global markets, including India, continue to react sharply to geopolitical developments, especially through movements in crude oil prices. However, he believes crude has already formed a major top and could witness a sharp decline in the coming months.

He projected WTI crude oil prices could slide towards the USD 64 mark and even hinted that levels below USD 54 may eventually come into play over the longer term.

According to Bala, falling crude prices could significantly ease market concerns and support the next leg of the rally in equities.

Nifty Seen Hitting 30000 by 2026

The market expert reiterated that he has maintained a bullish stance on Indian equities since April 2025. While geopolitical tensions briefly pushed the market lower earlier, he said the correction did not damage the medium-term uptrend.

Bala expects the Nifty to climb towards the 29000-30000 range between August and September 2026.

He believes the rally will not be driven by one single sector alone, but rather through sector rotation, where different pockets of the market take leadership at different stages.

Sectors Jay Bala Is Bullish On

Defence and Capital Goods

Bala remains highly optimistic on defence and capital goods stocks. He believes these segments could continue leading the market higher in the coming months.

Stocks linked to power, infrastructure and industrial manufacturing are among his preferred bets. He particularly highlighted Bharat Forge as one of his top picks in the defence space and expects the stock to continue its strong momentum.

He also pointed out that investors looking for wider exposure to the defence segment can consider sector-focused ETFs.

Realty Sector Could Make a Strong Comeback

Real estate is another space where Bala sees major upside potential. According to him, the sector has likely formed a bottom and may head towards fresh record highs again.

He expects the rally in real estate to be broad-based rather than restricted to a handful of stocks. While frontline players like DLF and Phoenix Mills may lead the move, he believes several other names across the sector could participate in the rally.

The expected revival in real estate, he added, may also provide tailwinds to infrastructure and cement companies.

Reliance Could Return as Market Support

One of the key themes Bala highlighted was the possible comeback of Reliance Industries as a market support stock.

He noted that Reliance has largely underperformed in recent months despite its heavy weightage in the indices. However, he expects the stock to regain strength over the next few months and provide support to the broader market rally.

Bala projected Reliance could move towards the Rs 1,700-1,750 range over a longer time frame while maintaining that the stock is unlikely to fall below the Rs 1300 mark.

IT Sector Still Not Out of Trouble

Unlike his bullish stance on defence and capital goods, Bala remains cautious on information technology stocks for now.

He said weakness in the IT space is not limited to India and can also be seen globally, especially in the US software sector. According to him, concerns around artificial intelligence disruption have weighed on the sector.

However, he believes the Nifty IT index may be close to forming a bottom. Bala expects a recovery to emerge eventually, though he prefers to wait for confirmation before turning fully bullish on the sector.

He also said large-cap IT names are likely to recover first, followed by stronger participation from midcap IT companies later.

What About Banks?

Bala believes private sector banks could take over market leadership from PSU banks in the next phase of the rally.

While PSU banks have already played a major role in lifting the markets over the past year, he now expects private lenders such as ICICI Bank and Axis Bank to contribute more meaningfully.

However, he clarified that banks may not necessarily emerge as the biggest leaders of the next market rally.

FMCG Still Weak Despite Bounce

The one sector Bala continues to avoid is FMCG.

Although he acknowledged that FMCG stocks could witness a short-term recovery rally, he does not see it as a structural trend reversal. According to him, select stocks like Nestle and Marico may outperform within the sector, but the broader FMCG pack still lacks long-term strength.

He described the current rise in FMCG as more of a trading opportunity rather than a long-term investment play.

Pharma Finally Showing Strength

Pharma is another segment where Bala sees improving momentum.

After remaining largely sideways for an extended period, the sector has started breaking out, which he described as encouraging from a technical perspective.

Among pharma stocks, he prefers names like Aurobindo Pharma and Glenmark. Bala expects the Nifty Pharma index to move higher over the next three months as momentum strengthens further.

Metal Stocks at a Crossroads

On metals, Bala maintained a more balanced approach.

While he has been bullish on the sector since late last year, he now believes the segment is entering a decisive phase. According to him, metals could either witness a healthy pullback before moving higher again or lose momentum temporarily.

He added that ferrous metal stocks are likely to lead if the sector eventually resumes its uptrend.

Crude Crash Could Benefit Oil and Tyre Stocks

If crude oil prices indeed fall sharply, Bala believes several sectors linked to energy costs could benefit.

He expects oil marketing companies such as HPCL and BPCL, along with tyre manufacturers, to gain from lower input costs. Among tyre stocks, he remains optimistic on TVS Srichakra.

According to Bala, charts are already indicating that the top in crude prices may be in place and that easing geopolitical tensions could accelerate the decline further.

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