While some high-quality names face pressure from stretched assumptions and slowing cash flows, others are being backed for structural demand, favourable pricing dynamics and medium-term earnings recovery, prompting investors to reassess positioning across sectors.

Stocks To Buy, Sell Or Hold

Emkay on Avenue Supermarts

• The brokerage initiates 'sell' with a target price of Rs 3,700
• DMart has low 1.5 per cent market share, limited reach across retail segments
• Strong balance sheet limits SSG recovery; only seasonal demand and brand price hikes help DMart
• Quick commerce gaining fast; already 1.5 times modern trade share in metros
• Increasing QC presence in 50-100 cities reduces store footfall and growth
• Bill cuts per sqft declined 6 per cent, causing flat revenue productivity
• Capex per store increased 60 per cent, reducing return on invested capital (13 per cent)
• EBITDA growth mainly to be driven by store expansion, not by improvement in efficiency
• Owned store model NPV advantage reducing due to rising capital costs
• High valuation (70 times P/E) assumes strong future growth, not yet

Nuvama on Godrej Properties

• The brokerage maintains 'Hold' with target price of Rs 1,925
• Godrej Properties FY26 pre-sales grew 16 per cent, slightly above company guidance
• Q4 pre-sales remained flat YoY, indicating a slowdown despite strong yearly growth
• Sales volumes grew only 5 per cent, showing weaker demand in housing market
• Average selling prices (asp) increased 11 per cent, supporting revenue despite volume slowdown
• Collections grew 17 per cent, but still missed company guidance by around 5 per cent
• Operating cash flow rose just 5 per cent, showing weak cash generation
• Free cash flow remained negative (Rs 31bn), continuing past years trend
• New project additions strong, but require high investment impacting cash flows
• Housing sector slowdown may limit future sales growth due to high base

Morgan Stanley on India Autos and Shared Mobility

• The brokerage noted that the industry view is attractive
• Delhi EV Policy proposes strong incentives for two wheelers three wheelers and small commercial vehicles
• ICE phaseout timelines set for three wheelers from 2027 and two wheelers from 2028
• Fleet electrification mandated from January 2026
• EV passenger vehicles below Rs 30 lakh to get full tax and registration waiver
• Strong hybrids to get 50 per cent tax and registration waiver
• Legacy OEMs face structural risk if policy scales across cities
• Implementation risk remains due to potential shift of purchases to NCR

Morgan Stanley on India Energy

• The brokerage noted that the industry view in line
• Fuel demand growth muted at 1.5 per cent YoY in March
• Transport fuels strong with gasoline and diesel up 8 per cent YoY
• LPG demand declined 13 per cent YoY due to supply disruptions
• Industrial demand weak due to feedstock constraints
• Ex LPG demand growth at 5 per cent YoY indicates underlying strength
• Fuel oil demand surged 34 per cent YoY as users switched from gas
• Refining margins expected to remain 1.5 times above mid cycle
• Earnings recovery likely from second half of FY26

Morgan Stanley on India Financials

• The brokerage maintains a constructive view
• FY27 outlook uncertain due to geopolitical risks
• Loan growth and asset quality trends improved in 3Q and 4Q
• Valuation correction provides cushion despite earnings risks
• Base case of weak FY27 followed by recovery in FY28
• Prefer large cap private banks for defensiveness and valuation
• Positive on life insurers due to attractive valuations
• Selective exposure to NBFCs and small HFCs for growth
• Lower preference for PSU banks and mid sized private banks

Morgan Stanley on India Financials

• Macro risks rising with higher interest rates impacting outlook
• Earnings forecasts cut due to lower revenue and higher cost of equity
• Cost of equity raised with risk free rate at 6.75 per cent
• Bear case probability of 10 per cent added to valuations
• FY27 likely to be weak with normalization expected in FY28
• Upgrade MCX and ICICI Prudential Life to Overweight
• Downgrade ICICI Prudential AMC to Equal weight
• Lenders to see pressure from lower growth higher credit costs and NIM compression
• NBFCs mid sized private banks and PSU banks face higher impact
• Large private banks preferred for defensive earnings
• Life insurers preferred over non life despite weaker VNB outlook
• AMCs to see sharp earnings cuts due to market weakness
• MCX seen as defensive play on commodity volatility

Morgan Stanley on UPL

• The brokerage resumed coverage at 'Equal' weight with target price of Rs 658
• Play on recovery in global crop chemical volumes with strong recent outperformance
• Delivered 2 to 2.5 times higher volume growth than peers over last eight quarters
• Agchem cycle improving with better offtake higher application rates and pest resistance
• UPL well positioned for 3 per cent to 6 per cent volume growth and market share gains over FY27 to FY28
• Near term risks from fertilizer outages impacting farm economics and pesticide demand
• Feedstock sourcing risks for key inputs like ammonia methanol and sulphur could constrain volumes
• China export changes to support pricing with 9% to 13% increase in select product ASPs
• Cost inflation in energy logistics and intermediates to support pricing environment
• Risks include weaker farm profitability and pressure in Brazil agri credit conditions

Goldman Sachs on Solar Industries

• The brokerage maintains 'Buy' with target price of Rs 18,900
• Explosives prices up sharply driven by 44 per cent rise in ammonium nitrate prices
• Coal India explosive costs increased 26 per cent indicating strong pricing environment
• Higher input costs supporting realization improvement for explosives players
• Structural demand supported by mining activity and coal production needs
• Positive outlook maintained with strong pricing tailwinds and earnings visibility

Citi On Coal India

• Closing 90-D Positive CW opened on 4th March
• Our CW was predicated on potential e-auction price upside
• Higher international coal prices should be positive for CIL on potentially higher e-auction prices
• Co has announced they are absorbing higher costs on account of the West Asia crisis
• Cost of explosives used for blasting - up 26 per cent in a month
• Cost of industrial diesel - up 54 per cent in less than a month
• Explosives and industrial diesel account for 8 per cent of CIL's costs (4% each)
• Current inflation suggests an increase of 3 per cent in CIL's total costs.
• Expect e-auction prices to be on an uptrend as global prices have risen
• Some subsidiaries have reduced the reserve price for e-auction coal and increased the quantity
• Close our positive CW (opened on 4th March) following CIL's announcement on higher costs and lower e-auction reserve prices.
• Coal India has outperformed the broader market by 5 per cent since the end Feb 26.

(Disclaimer: The above article is meant for informational purposes only, and should not be considered as any investment advice. ET NOW DIGITAL suggests its readers/audience to consult their financial advisors before making any money related decisions.)

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