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Zomato (Eternal) Q4FY26 Preview: Blinkit likely to drive growth, food delivery seen under mild pressure - Check expectations from quarterly earnings

Zomato (Eternal) Q4FY26 Preview: Blinkit likely to drive growth, food delivery seen under mild pressure - Check expectations from quarterly earnings

ETNow.in 1 week ago

Zomato parent Eternal is expected to report a broadly steady performance in the March quarter of FY26, with quick commerce arm Blinkit continuing to power overall growth, even as the core food delivery business faces some near-term pressure.

Street expectations point to sequential improvement in profitability on the back of operating leverage, margin discipline and the benefits of recent pricing actions. Eternal share price meanwhile fell 3.9 per cent ahead of the company Q4FY26 result.


Zomato Q4FY26 Preview

On a consolidated basis, revenue for Q4FY26 is estimated at around Rs 17,500 crore, a 7.3 per cent increase quarter on quarter compared with Rs 16,315 crore in Q3FY26. EBITDA is expected to rise faster than revenue, climbing about 18 per cent QoQ to Rs 435 crore, supported by improved scale and cost efficiencies. Net profit is seen at roughly Rs 126 crore, up 23.5 per cent sequentially, while EBITDA margins are expected to expand by 25 basis points to 2.5 per cent.

Blinkit Q4FY26 Expectations

Quick commerce subsidiary Blinkit is expected to once again be the standout performer during the quarter. Segment revenue is projected to grow 15.4 per cent QoQ to Rs 14,144 crore, driven by network expansion, better throughput at mature stores and sustained demand for quick deliveries. Net order value (NOV) is likely to rise about 11 per cent QoQ, while net merchandise value (NMV) is expected to increase nearly 10 per cent.

Margins for Blinkit, however, are expected to remain stable rather than improve sharply. Contribution margins are seen holding flat at around 5 per cent, while EBITDA margins are likely to stay near break-even levels. Analysts believe operating leverage at older dark stores may be offset by pricing actions and the cost impact of rapid network expansion. During the quarter, Blinkit is estimated to have added 173 new dark stores, taking its total store count to about 2,200.

Food delivery business

The food delivery segment is expected to see a modest sequential slowdown, with revenue projected at Rs 2,605 crore, down 2.7 per cent QoQ. Net order value is seen declining about 2 per cent, reflecting seasonal weakness and competitive intensity.

However, margins are expected to inch higher. Contribution margin is estimated to improve by 30 basis points to around 8.8 per cent, aided by higher platform fees, better order mix and tighter discounts. Adjusted EBITDA as a percentage of NOV is projected at approximately 5.5 per cent, indicating continued profitability resilience despite softer volumes.
Hyperpure revenue is expected to remain largely flat at around Rs 1,062 crore, while the Going-Out segment is seen declining marginally by about 2 per cent QoQ to Rs 294 crore.

Eternal Q4FY26 Preview: Good Quarter Seen

Cons QoQ

  • Revenue seen at Rs 17,500 cr versus Rs 16,315 cr, up 7.3 per cent
  • EBITDA seen at Rs 435 cr vs Rs 368 cr, up 18.2 per cent
  • PAT seen at Rs 126 cr vs Rs 102 cr, up 23.5 per cent
  • EBITDA margin seen at 2.5 per cent vs 2.25 per cent, up 25 bps

Segment-wise revenue: QoQ

  • Blinkit (QC) seen at Rs 14,144 cr vs Rs 12,256 cr, up 15.4 per cent
  • Food delivery seen at Rs 2,605 cr vs Rs 2,676 cr, down 2.7 per cent
  • Hyperpure seen at Rs 1,062 cr vs Rs 1,070 cr, flat
  • Going Out seen at Rs 294 cr vs Rs 300 cr, down 2 per cent

Key expectations: Food delivery

  • Contribution margin to rise by 30 bps QoQ to 8.8 per cent
  • NOV (Net order value) to fall 2 per cent QoQ, take rate of 21.5 per cent
  • Platform fee hike to aid margin expansion

Key expectations: Quick commerce (Blinkit)

  • Contribution margin (5 per cent) and EBITDA margin (0 per cent) to remain flat QoQ
  • NOV (Net order value) to grow 11 per cent QoQ, take rate flat at 26.6 per cent
  • NMV (net merchandise value) to grow 10 per cent QoQ
  • Operating leverage of older stores will be offset by pricing action
  • 173 new dark stores seen to be added in Q4, taking the total to 2200


Key monitorables

  • Food Delivery GOV growth
  • Net dark store addition for Blinkit
  • Does Blinkit's EBITDA margin break-even sustain/grow?
  • Average Order value growth vs peers
  • Outlook on competition (Zepto listing)

(Disclaimer: The above article is meant for informational purposes only, and should not be considered as any investment advice. ET NOW DIGITAL suggests its readers/audience to consult their financial advisors before making any money related decisions.)

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