Beneath the routine rallies, organisational meetings and public welfare announcements lies a far deeper contest, one shaped by identity, communal undercurrents, development claims, electoral arithmetic and the relentless struggle to control narratives. Assam today stands politically charged, socially anxious and electorally unpredictable, even as the ruling establishment projects an image of confidence and inevitability.

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The Bharatiya Janata Party, now a decade into its political dominance in Assam, is fighting a battle that is as much about retaining power as it is about defending a carefully built political hegemony. Senior BJP leaders privately concede that the 2026 election will not be a walkover. “This election is about consolidation, not expansion,” a BJP strategist said on condition of anonymity. “The opposition may look weak on paper, but complacency will be suicidal.” The party’s core strategy continues to revolve around a mix of aggressive nationalism, cultural assertion and welfare politics, with Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma positioned as both the face and force of the campaign.

The BJP leadership believes Sarma’s sharp political instincts, command over bureaucracy and ability to dominate the public discourse give the party a decisive edge. “Himanta da connects with the masses in a language they understand; firm, emotional and unapologetic,” said a BJP MLA from Upper Assam. The party’s campaign machinery is already sharpening its focus on beneficiaries of welfare schemes, infrastructure projects and law-and-order claims. Roads, bridges, medical colleges and eviction drives are being framed as symbols of a ‘decisive government’. “People want order, not appeasement,” a senior BJP minister remarked. “That is the mood we are tapping into.”

Yet, beneath this confidence lies an unmistakable reliance on polarisation as an electoral tool. Communal rhetoric, particularly around issues of immigration, land, religious identity and ‘indigenous rights’, has intensified. Opposition leaders accuse the BJP of deliberately stoking anxieties to consolidate the Hindu vote. “This government survives on fear,” said Assam Congress president Bhupen Borah. “Every election, Muslims are turned into the enemy, and indigenous people are told their existence is under threat.” Civil society groups echo similar concerns, warning that the normalisation of divisive language has eroded social trust. “Communal tension is no longer accidental; it is structural,” said a Guwahati-based academic.

The Congress, once the natural party of power in Assam, is attempting a cautious revival after years of organisational drift. Party leaders admit that their biggest challenge is credibility. “People ask us, where were you all these years?” a senior Congress leader said candidly. The Congress strategy hinges on stitching together a broad anti-BJP front while projecting itself as a calmer, inclusive alternative. Issues like unemployment, price rise, alleged corruption and the handling of ethnic conflicts are central to its campaign pitch. “Assam cannot be run like a permanent election war room,” Borah said. “Governance needs dialogue, not bulldozers.”

However, internal factionalism continues to haunt the Congress. Several district units remain divided, and there is lingering mistrust between old loyalists and newer entrants. “Unity is our biggest weakness,” admitted a Congress MLA from Barak Valley. “If we don’t fix that fast, no amount of anti-incumbency will help.” The party is also heavily dependent on the performance of its allies, particularly the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), a partnership that remains politically sensitive due to the BJP’s persistent portrayal of it as a “communal alliance”.

The AIUDF, for its part, is recalibrating its role amid growing scrutiny. Party chief Badruddin Ajmal has struck a more defensive tone, repeatedly insisting that his party stands for constitutional values and peaceful coexistence. “We are tired of being demonised,” Ajmal said at a recent rally. “Muslims are citizens of this state, not outsiders.” Yet, AIUDF insiders admit that the party is wary of being used merely as a vote bank without genuine power-sharing. “We won’t be silent partners anymore,” a senior AIUDF leader said.

The regional parties: AGP, Raijor Dal and Assam Jatiya Parishad - occupy a complex space in this political chessboard. The Asom Gana Parishad, now firmly aligned with the BJP, has largely surrendered its independent ideological identity. “AGP has become a shadow of itself,” said a former party leader who quit recently. “The Assam Accord, once our soul, is now a forgotten document.” While the BJP sees AGP as useful for symbolic regional legitimacy, many voters view the party as politically irrelevant.

In contrast, Raijor Dal and Assam Jatiya Parishad are attempting to tap into Assamese sub-nationalism, especially among youth and intellectuals disillusioned with both national parties. Raijor Dal leader Akhil Gogoi remains a polarising figure, admired for his activism and feared by rivals for his unpredictability. “This election is not about BJP versus Congress,” Gogoi said recently. “It is about Assam versus Delhi.” Yet, questions remain about whether these parties can convert ideological appeal into electoral numbers. “Social media support does not always translate into votes,” a political analyst noted.

Ethnic tensions and identity conflicts add another volatile layer to the electoral environment. The fragile peace in areas affected by inter-community clashes, including between indigenous groups and Bengali-speaking Muslims, remains a concern. “Every unresolved conflict becomes political ammunition,” said a retired police officer. The government’s handling of eviction drives and forest land clearances has drawn sharp reactions. Supporters call them necessary steps to reclaim state resources; critics label them targeted and cruel. “You cannot govern with a bulldozer and expect harmony,” said a rights activist from Darrang.

Law and order, once projected as the BJP’s strongest card, is also under scrutiny. While the government highlights crackdowns on drugs and organised crime, opposition leaders question selective policing. “Why do only small fish get caught?” asked a Congress spokesperson. “Why are those close to power untouched?” Such allegations, whether proven or not, are likely to feature prominently in campaign rhetoric.

Perhaps the most decisive factor will be voter fatigue. After years of intense political messaging, many citizens express exhaustion. “Every day it’s politics, politics, politics,” said a shopkeeper in Jorhat. “What about jobs for our children?” Youth unemployment, migration and economic stagnation in rural areas remain persistent worries. “We don’t want speeches anymore,” said a final-year student in Guwahati. “We want opportunities.”

As Assam heads toward the polls, the election promises to be less about ideology and more about power retention versus disruption. The BJP is fighting to protect its fortress; the opposition is desperate to find cracks. Communal fault lines, regional aspirations and governance narratives are colliding in a high-stakes contest that will shape Assam’s political future for years to come. As one veteran journalist put it, “This election will not just decide who rules Assam. It will decide what kind of Assam survives.”