The public policy research organisation estimates that 998,599 Indians were waiting in the EB-1, EB-2 and EB-3 categories as of December 2025. The total backlog across the three categories stood at 1,264,495.

Indians make up nearly four in five applicants

The EB-2 category accounts for the largest share of the Indian backlog. It covers professionals with advanced degrees and people with exceptional ability in the sciences, arts or business.

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NFAP estimates that 731,566 Indians were waiting in EB-2 at the end of 2025. Another 213,414 Indians were in EB-3, which covers professionals, skilled workers and other workers.

The Indian EB-1 backlog fell from an estimated 71,988 in April 2020 to 51,619 in December 2025. EB-1 covers priority workers, including people with extraordinary ability, outstanding researchers and professors, and certain multinational executives and managers.

Across all nationalities, the employment-based backlog increased from 1,048,342 in April 2020 to 1,264,495 in December 2025. That represents a rise of 216,153 people, or 20.6%, according to NFAP.

New applicants could face waits of decades

NFAP estimates that Indians whose employment-based immigrant petition or labour certification application was filed in January 2026 or later could face a potential wait of 179 years in EB-2 and 38 years in EB-3.

However, actual waiting times could change. Visa availability, people leaving the queue and changes in US immigration law could affect the timeline.

For Indian applicants in EB-2 and EB-3, NFAP said the wait is more likely to stretch into decades than years, particularly for applicants with priority dates close to 2025 or 2026.

The August 2026 Visa Bulletin highlights the depth of the backlog. For India, the EB-1 final-action date is October 15, 2022. The EB-3 final-action date is January 1, 2014. EB-2 is listed as unavailable for August.

A priority date determines an applicant's place in the green-card queue. For most employment-based applicants, it links to the date when the labour certification application or employment-based immigrant petition was filed.

Annual cap and country limit fuel backlog

NFAP points to two major restrictions in US immigration law.

The first is the annual employment-based immigrant visa limit of 140,000. Congress established this limit in 1990. The figure includes principal applicants and eligible dependent family members.

Dependants also use a share of these visa numbers. This further reduces the number available to principal applicants seeking permanent residence.

The second restriction is the per-country limit. Under Section 202(a) of the Immigration and Nationality Act, nationals of a single foreign country generally cannot receive more than 7% of employment-based immigrant visas.

The limit has a major impact on countries such as India and China. Both have large numbers of highly skilled professionals seeking permanent residence in the US.

Extra green cards did not clear the backlog

The backlog continued to grow even though the US issued more employment-based green cards than the statutory annual allocation from fiscal 2020 through fiscal 2024.

NFAP calculates that the US issued 980,460 employment-based green cards during those five fiscal years. The expected allocation was 700,000. That means about 280,000 additional green cards became available.

Family-sponsored visa numbers went unused during the pandemic and other periods of disruption. The US later made those unused numbers available to employment-based categories.

Even those additional green cards could not clear the accumulated backlog.

NFAP estimates that the employment-based backlog could exceed two million by 2040 if US immigration law remains unchanged.

Labour certification adds years to the wait

For many employment-based immigrants, the wait begins before they enter the green-card queue.

Most employment-based immigrants need labour certification. NFAP says the process can take two to three years.

The prevailing wage determination is the first step. It can take three to eight months. Employers must then complete recruitment for at least 60 days, although the process can take longer.

As of August 2026, the US Department of Labor reported average processing times of 403 days for PERM applications under analyst review and 290 days for applications under audit review, according to NFAP.

For Indian professionals already working in the US on H-1B visas, these delays can mean staying in temporary immigration status for many years while they wait for permanent residence.

Stuart Anderson, executive director of NFAP, said the long waits create significant hardship for individuals and families. He also said they make it harder for US companies to attract and retain skilled talent.

The report also stressed that the backlog is different from processing delays at US Citizenship and Immigration Services. The queue exists because current law limits the number of employment-based immigrant visas available each year.

NFAP has called for changes to US immigration law. It pointed to a proposal considered by the US House of Representatives in 2022. The proposal would have exempted certain people with PhDs in science and technology fields and master's degrees in critical industries from employment-based green-card numerical limits and backlogs.

The proposal did not become part of the final CHIPS and Science Act.

NFAP said demand for employment-based immigrant visas remains far higher than the annual supply. It also said per-country limits disproportionately affect nationals of countries such as India.