If Subhendu Adhikari contesting as a BJP nominee defeated his onetime chief, Trinamool Congress supremo and chief minister Mamata Banerjee by a wafer thin margin in the summer of 2021, he finds himself in a not much dissimilar pre-election situation in 2026 assembly polls.

Leader of the Opposition, Adhikari is pitted against TMC nominee Pabitra Kar in the electoral battle scheduled to be held in April 23 at Nandigram. And just as Adhikari was a ministerial colleague and close confidante in the TMC to Banerjee, Kar had once been his present election rival’s lieutenant in BJP.

As Adhikari and Kar are pulling out all stops to get a favourable verdict from the people, one cannot but look back at the electoral contest between two erstwhile Cabinet colleagues in 2021.The TMC supremo had staked her political course of action on a single election in Nandigram then..

After Banerjee lost after appearing to be having all odds in her favour in this poll battle in which she was certain of victory, she had to go through an ignominious experience of taking the chief ministerial oath sans a poll victory. It is another story that she won a by-election comfortably from Bhabanipur, her home constituency from where, she is contesting against Subhendu Adhikari again. Subhendu is contesting from two constituencies, Nandigram and Bhabanipur in the current polls.

Both the winner and the loser seem to have taken lessons from the 2021 Nandigram elections. Even as Adhikari is taking on Banerjee at Bhabanipur in the second phase of polling on April 29, he has not let go of his home constituency Nandigram unlike his political rival who five years ago had no second thoughts before moving to Bhabanipur where she lives.

A close association with Nandigram was a commonality shared by Banerjee and Adhikari long before they had become political rivals. The duo were comrades in the agrarian struggle against setting up of a chemical industry hub at the initiative of the then Left Front government.

The agitation resulted to loss of lives in police firing and atrocities on women and snowballed to become one of the launchpads catapulting the TMC to power. Banerjee and Adhikari both were crucial stakeholders in the dispensation change.

Nandigram continues to shape political battle and electoral outcomes. The April 23 election is less about political symbolism and more about political realities as the lot of its residents have remained unchanged despite they delivering results which did not quite gel with public perception.

The shadow of Nandigram police firings still lingers in perception of the older generation. Yet political loyalties do not remain unchanged even among those who emotionally recall the movement.

What was Banerjee’s failure to oversee in her 2021 poll battle was that the influence of the Adhikari family in Midnapur (east) which continues to dominate the political landscape. Adhikari winning by 1956 votes amidst a “power cut” five years ago saw Banerjee, the potential face of Nandigram movement losing what she had considered to be her own turf.

The narrow margin exposed vulnerabilities as Adhikari as a TMC nominee had won with a 81,000 lead in 2016 elections even as he contested in the shadow of Narada sting operation. The political ground had shifted since then of which the slim margin was a pointer.

But post 2021 victory, saffron supremacy remained unchanged in 2024 Lok Sabha election after BJP secured a 8,000 votes lead from Nandigram. The constituency remained competitive with a tilt towards BJP.

Trinamool leadership earmarked Kar, a local boy to counter one of its most vocal critics -Adhikari. Apart from being a son of the soil, the TMC nominee being once in the BJP, his entry will severely test the organisational cohesion of the saffron camp.

Kar’s saffron roots do not make him an widely accepted leader. Moreover, a reported “disproportionate deletion” of the names of Muslim voters seems to have dimmed the TMC prospects at Nandigram.

Previous results reveal that electoral arithmetic in Nandigram, once a CPI stronghold CPI, hinges on delicate balance between demographic segments. It remains to be seen that the earlier pattern of BJP nominee lagging behind in minority areas and then making up the deficit in other neighbourhoods holds good in 2026 elections after five years.

Individuals’ charisma overshadows everyday issues like lack of cold storage for storage of the catch of fish and of course joblessness. Kar is up against the influence of the Adhikari family which definitely gives Subhendu a leg up..

The contest is heavy in symbolism as Banerjee and Adhikari will contest against each other in Bhabanipur on April 29. Better chances of electoral success for Adhikari at Nandigram ensures he will retain some political relevance even if he loses in Banerjee’s backyard.

A pall of violence is invisible but yet continues to hang over Nandigram all the same. Presence of central para military forces and heightened administrative vigilance harks back to past poll day violence.

The poll battle will be a referendum on leadership styles and ideology in West Bengal. It will also have a significant effect on Adhikari’s political future.

If Adhikari loses, he would end up with egg on his face as pulling off a victory at Bhabanipur is an unlikely proposition as the second constituency he is contesting is almost a ‘Trinamool country.” A reverse in Bhabanipur coupled with a victory for at Nandigram for Adhikari will give him a lease of political life to fight for another day. (IPA Service)

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