By 3 p.m. most of districts reported heaving polling with Ernakulam recording 66 per cent voting, followed by Palakkad (62 per cent), Alappuzha (61 per cent), and Idukki (63per cent). Polling in Pathanamthitta, however, is comparatively low with the district flaunting a figure of 59per cent.

The three principal fronts, the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF), the Congress-headed United Democratic Front(UDF) and the National Democratic Front led by the BJP are locked in tight contests in a large number of constituencies.

Heaviest polling - 70 per cent – so far has been reported from Kunnathunadu in Ernakulam followed by Tripunikthura (67per cent). Polling is brisk in Kalamassery, too, where Industries Minister P. Rajeeve is trying his luck.

Reports of fake voting have also came from various constituencies. For instance, attempts at impersonation were made at Chavara seat, an RSP stronghold, in Kollam district. Timely intervention by polling officials averted untoward incidents.

Instances of fake voting were also reported from Vattiyurkavu and Kazhakkoottam constituencies, which are witnessing close contests among CPI(M), Congress and BJP candidates, in Thiruvananthapuram district.

Polling was very heavy in Kannur district, too with key constituencies Taliparamba and Payyannur reporting over 65 per cent polling. The LDF is expected to win lion’s share of seats from the district, considered a fortress of the CPI(M).

Both the main rivals, the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front(LDF) and the Congress-headed United Democratic Front (UDF) are predicting victory.

While the LDF's expression of confidence stems from its remarkable governance record during its decade-long rule, the UDF is basing its optimism on what it terms as the 'strong anti-incumbency factor' against the Government.

No doubt, the stakes are high for both the Fronts. A third term in office will be a booster shot for the Pinarayi Government. And it will be creating history too by breaking its own record in the process. Victory will further enhance its status as the only communist-ruled State.

Conversely, it is a do-or-die battle for the Congress. Another defeat could accelerate the descent of the Congress into political oblivion, and the firming up of the BJP:-led National Democratic Front (NDA) in the State, which has so far bucked the saffronisation of the polity. Leader of the Opposition V D Satheesan is so confident of victory that he has promised to take political sanyas if the UDF loses the election!

Another five years out of power is unthinkable for the UDF. The period in wilderness saw the fortunes of the UDF decline. The Front suffered a serious setback with the crossing over of the Kerala Congress(Mani) to the LDF before the 2021 polls. Defeat would also cause a loss of face for the Congress nationally, seriously endangering its bid to stay the leader of the INDIA alliance.

As for the LDF, the election will be a test of its credentials, the front's stability and its ability to prevent erosion of its votes from its strongholds and the communities which have traditionally backed it.

A detailed look at the prospects of the three fronts is in order. First, the LDF. The ruling front is supremely confident of winning a third term. The LDF camp is premising this optimism on the calculation that 62 to 66 seats are its sure seats. There is no way the LDF can lose these seats. The contest is tight in another 15 constituencies. Even if the front bags half of those seats it will scamper home the winner, LDF leaders claim.

Another set of Left leaders put it this way. They say even if the Front loses 25 seats, – a prospect they rule out – it will be left with 74 seats, which is enough to form the Government.

And their analysis of the 14 districts is as follows. The LDF will win a majority of seats in Kannur, Kozhikode, Palakkad and Thrissur in the Malabar region. The UDF is sitting pretty only in Malappuram district, where the IUML, a constituent of the Front, could win at least 12 out of the 16 seats in the district. The LDF's show in central Kerala may not match its Malabar performance as the UDF has a slight edge there. The LDF is hopeful of repeating its 2021 performance in the southern Kerala, especially in districts such as Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam and Alappuzha and Idukki.

The UDF, however, thinks differently. It says that the front will make big inroads into the seats held by the LDF even in Kannur, Kozhikode and Thrissur, where the Congress does not have a single MLA at present. In Peravoor, a constituency that is part of the Kannur Lok Sabha constituency, a traditional Congress stronghold, Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee(KPCC) chief Sunny Joseph is in trouble. CPI(M) leader K K Shailaja is putting up a spirited fight in an effort to wrest the seat from Congress. Sunny's woes have deepened as his mentor and Kannur MP K. Sudhakaran is upset with him. Sudhakaran thinks that his protege Sunny has backstabbed him by writing to the party high command to deny a ticket to Sudhakaran for the Assembly election. Angry Sudhakaran supporters are now out to settle scores with Sunny by voting against him in Peravoor. This could result in Shailaja wresting Peravoor, where Sudhakaran has a sizable following.

The UDF camp, however, is smug in its calculations. It thinks that the anti-incumbency factor is strong and could cause LDF defeat even in some of its strongholds in Kannur, Kozhikode and Thrissur where the LDF made a clean sweep in 2021 by winning all the 13 seats. The Front is also banking heavily on its show in central Kerala districts such as Ernakulam, Kottayam and Pathanamthitta. But an unexpected development in the 11th hour has put the UDF on the defensive. The Congress has been badly shaken by allegations over its misuse and misappropriation of funds collected for constructing houses for Wayanad landslide victims. The LDF is using the 'scam' with telling effect. And they believe it could prove the game-changer in the ultimate analysis. If that happens, then Congress goose is well and truly cooked.

The BJP is also in buoyant mood. The party thinks it is set to improve its performance by winning a couple of seats this time. The saffron camp is extremely confident of winning Nemom, from where BJP's state chief Rajiv Chandrasekhar is contesting. The NDA also fancies its chances high in Palakkad, Manjeswaram and Thrissur, which has sent the first BJP MP to the Lok Sabha, Suresh Gopi. Both the LDF and the UDF, however, rule out the possibility of BJP opening its account in the Assembly. In support of their contention, the front leaders say the BJP which raised its vote percentage in the Lok Sabha polls to 19 per cent, slipped badly in the local bodies elections, its volte share plummeting to 14 per cent.

BJP leaders however dismiss this claim. They say the BJP is riding high on confidence following its victory in the Thiruvananthapuram Corporation election. As for Thirissur, the BJP candidate is banking heavily on the Suresh Gopi factor. But Suresh's image has lost its sheen, thanks to his arrogance and acerbic tongue which has alienated a big slice of Thrissur voters. BJP fared badly in the Thrissur Corporation poll, too by performing below par.

At the end of the day, the fluid situation has made a forecast extremely difficult. If the voters go by the LDF Government's good governance record and slew of welfare steps and amazing infrastructure development, the LDF would secure a third term. But if the voters get influenced by the miasma of misinformation and patent falsehoods peddled by the UDF and the BJP, then the UDF could emerge the winner. The BJP could play the spoiler if it wins a few seats. In fact, the BJP's calculations seem to be that if it wins a few seats, the outcome would be a hung Assembly.

In that event, it may not shy away from recommending President's rule in Kerala. Such an eventuality will, in all probability, mean BJP rule by proxy. A development, which cannot but send shivers down both the LDF and UDF spines. And a luxury a State like Kerala, steeped in the secular ethos, cannot afford to have. One hopes the enlightened voters would vote for continuity of the remarkable progress made during the 10-year LDF rule and prevent the God's Own Country's descent into uncertainty and resultant chaos. (IPA Service)

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