The report, unveiled by Exim Bank Deputy Managing Director Tarun Sharma, says Odisha is well placed to play a larger role in India's export expansion while supporting the country's broader objective of achieving $2 trillion in exports by 2030. The study also aligns with the aspirations laid out in Odisha Vision 2047, which identifies exports as a central pillar of the state's long-term economic transformation and sets a target of raising Odisha's share in India's exports to 7.5 per cent by 2047, with MSMEs expected to play a key role.

The report presents three possible trajectories for Odisha's merchandise exports over the next four years. Under the base case scenario, the state is projected to maintain the same compound annual growth rate (CAGR) recorded between 2019-20 and 2025-26, taking exports to an estimated $14.9 billion by FY 2029-30.

A more optimistic outlook assumes Odisha's exports grow at the same projected CAGR as India's-22.7 per cent during 2025-26 to 2029-30. If that pace is achieved, the state's merchandise exports could rise to $24.4 billion by the end of the decade.

The most ambitious projection envisages India meeting its $1 trillion merchandise export target by 2029-30, while Odisha more than doubles its contribution to national exports from the current 2.4 per cent to 5 per cent. Under this scenario, the state's exports could reach $50 billion, according to the study.

Odisha's merchandise exports stood at $10.8 billion in FY 2025-26, accounting for 2.4 per cent of India's total exports during the year. The state also recorded a 7 per cent year-on-year increase over FY 2024-25, while exports expanded at a compound annual growth rate of 6.6 per cent between 2016-17 and 2025-26, reflecting steady, albeit moderate, growth over the past decade.

Despite this progress, the report notes that Odisha's export profile has remained largely concentrated in a handful of sectors. Metal and mineral-based products continue to dominate the state's export basket with limited diversification.

During FY 2025-26, aluminium and aluminium articles emerged as Odisha's largest export category, contributing 38.2 per cent of total merchandise exports. They were followed by iron and steel, inorganic chemicals, ores, slag and ash, and mineral fuels and oils, underscoring the state's continued dependence on resource-based industries.

China retained its position as Odisha's biggest overseas market during the fiscal, importing goods worth $1,973.8 million, equivalent to 18.3 per cent of the state's total exports. Other significant destinations included Vietnam, South Korea, the United States and the United Kingdom, highlighting the state's growing engagement across Asian and Western markets.

Speaking at the report's release, Sharma said Odisha possesses the potential to become an important contributor to India's export growth story. He said the state's strategic direction under Odisha Vision 2047 reflects a clear emphasis on leveraging exports as an engine of economic development while expanding participation from the MSME sector.

He also highlighted Exim Bank's recent efforts to strengthen India's export ecosystem through new financing initiatives aimed at addressing funding constraints and improving risk mitigation, particularly for micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs). According to Sharma, these measures are intended to make export financing more accessible and support businesses seeking to expand into international markets.

In Odisha, the bank has continued to work closely with exporters and MSMEs operating across both established industries and emerging sectors, he added, with the objective of strengthening the state's export capabilities and supporting its long-term growth ambitions.