17 April 2026, Africa: The ongoing crisis in the Middle East could reduce Africa's economic growth by as much as 0.2 percent in 2026, according to a joint policy report released by the African Union Commission, the African Development Bank Group (AfDB), the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA), and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).

Presented in Washington, D.C. on the sidelines of the Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, the report titled Impacts of the Conflict in the Middle East on African Economies highlights how geopolitical tensions are creating new risks for a continent still recovering from the aftershocks of COVID-19, the Russia-Ukraine war, and rising global trade tariffs.

The report notes that African economies are highly exposed to disruptions in the Middle East, particularly through energy, fertilizer, and food markets. It states that 80 percent of Africa's imported oil and around 50 percent of its refined petroleum products come from the region, making the continent vulnerable to supply shocks and price volatility.

According to the findings, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and broader instability in the region have significant consequences for global transport and trade flows. Rising prices of hydrocarbons, fertilizers, and food products, along with disruptions in logistics and supply chains, are expected to increase inflationary pressures across African nations.

The report also points to financial market stress, noting that 31 African countries were already experiencing currency depreciation due to the external shocks linked to the conflict. These developments could weaken purchasing power, increase import bills, and place additional pressure on public finances.

Speaking at the launch, AfDB Chief Economist and Vice President for Economic Governance and Knowledge Management Kevin Urama urged African governments to remain calm and avoid rushed policy responses that could worsen fiscal balances. He stressed the need for strategic inflation management and prudent handling of public finances.

For oil-exporting countries, the report recommends strict fiscal discipline and careful management of windfall revenues. It also advises governments to strengthen debt monitoring systems and use strategic energy reserves where available. Countries with fiscal space are encouraged to adopt temporary and targeted social protection measures to shield vulnerable populations from rising costs.

However, the institutions warned against broad-based subsidies, saying such measures could create long-term fiscal burdens. Instead, they called for diversification of energy sources, agricultural inputs, and food supply chains to improve resilience against future global shocks.

The report further recommends accelerating regional and intra-African trade in oil and fertilizer markets, while speeding up the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Greater domestic capital mobilisation and reforms under the New African Financial Architecture for Development (NAFAD) were also highlighted as essential for long-term economic stability.