Kerala held its Assembly elections in a single phase on April 6, 2021, with a high voter turnout of around 74 per cent. The state witnessed a three-cornered contest between the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF), the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), and the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
At the time, exit polls widely predicted a strong performance for the LDF, with several pollsters forecasting that the incumbent government would retain power. Axis My India projected between 104-120 seats for the LDF, while CVoter estimated 71-77 seats. Republic-CNX and other agencies also gave the LDF an edge, though with varying margins.
Despite differences in seat projections, most exit polls correctly anticipated the key outcome: a break from Kerala's long-standing trend of alternating governments. The LDF, led by Pinarayi Vijayan, ultimately retained power.
When the final results were declared, the LDF secured 99 seats in the 140-member Assembly, with the CPI(M) winning 62 of them. The UDF managed 41 seats, while the NDA remained a minor player.
This made the 2021 election historically significant, as it marked the first time in decades that a ruling alliance was re-elected in Kerala. The result broadly aligned with exit poll expectations, even though the exact seat numbers varied across agencies.
As Kerala moves into the 2026 electoral cycle, with Pinarayi Vijayan seeking a third consecutive term, the accuracy of past exit polls continues to be referenced in political analysis.