New Delhi: After days of rising heat, weather across India is finally shifting and for many, it's a welcome change. Pre-monsoon showers have begun making their presence felt, bringing rain, thunderstorms, and a noticeable dip in temperatures across several states.
According to the India Meteorological Department, alerts have been issued in at least 11 states, including Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, with stormy conditions expected over the next few days.
For residents in Delhi-NCR, the change is already visible. Overcast skies and cooler winds have replaced harsh sunlight since morning, offering much-needed relief from the heat.
The IMD has forecast rain and thunderstorms between April 8 and April 10, with similar patterns expected across large parts of the country.
As is typical each year, Kerala is among the first to witness strong pre-monsoon activity. The IMD has warned of heavy rainfall, lightning, and winds of 30-50 km/h in several parts of the state during this period.
In Rajasthan, the weather shift may be more dramatic. Along with light to heavy rainfall, residents could face dust storms, strong winds, and lightning strikes until April 10.
Rainfall warnings have been issued across a wide stretch of India, covering northern, central, and northeastern regions. States likely to be affected include Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha, Gujarat, Maharashtra, and several northeastern states.
City-level alerts: What to expect
In parts of Uttar Pradesh, including Agra and Meerut regions, thunderstorms and rain are expected
Bihar districts such as Patna, Muzaffarpur, and Darbhanga are under heavy rain warning
Uttarakhand regions like Dehradun and Nainital may see light to moderate rainfall
But there's a bigger concern: El Nino
While the rain is bringing short-term relief, experts are keeping a close watch on the bigger picture.
The Reserve Bank of India has flagged El Nino as a potential risk to inflation, following forecasts that India could see below-normal monsoon rainfall in 2026.
El Nino occurs when:
- Trade winds weaken or reverse
- Warm ocean waters shift toward South America
- Global weather patterns get disrupted
This often impacts India by weakening the monsoon, but not always.
Climate experts point out that another factor, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), can balance things out.
A positive IOD can reduce the impact of El Nino
Years like 1997 and 2006 saw normal monsoons despite El Nino.
Historical trends show mixed outcomes:
Severe droughts: 1982, 1987, 2002, 2009
Normal monsoons despite El Nino: 1994, 1997, 2006
In fact, scientists now believe that no two El Nino events behave the same way, making long-term predictions more complex.
For now, the immediate impact is positive, cooler weather, rainfall, and relief from heat in many parts of India.