Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) is reportedly on the brink of an internal collapse, reported IANS. Indian intelligence agencies, closely monitoring the outfit's recent activity, have flagged a "drastically different" tone in the latest Eid-ul-Fitr audio message attributed to its chief, Masood Azhar.
Unlike his usual fiery rhetoric, Azhar sounded physically weak and "broken," fueling rumours of a terminal illness and a desperate struggle for succession within the terror group.
For decades, Azhar has used Eid messages to radicalize cadres and issue threats against India. However, officials tracking the 2026 message noted that his voice lacked its typical vigour. This perceived weakness has reportedly triggered a "leadership vacuum" that is demoralising ground operatives. Intelligence suggests that the ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence) is now under pressure to find a successor as JeM's operational capabilities continue to wither compared to rivals like Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT).
How did 'Operation Sindoor' break the back of Jaish-e-Mohammed?
The current crisis is largely a fallout of Operation Sindoor, a major Indian military campaign launched in May 2025 following the Pahalgam attacks. The operation targeted nine major terror hubs, including JeM headquarters in Bahawalpur. While Masood Azhar survived, the strikes reportedly wiped out his immediate family and top commanders. Crucially, the whereabouts of his brother and second-in-command, Abdul Rauf Azhar, remain a mystery. Rumours suggest Rauf may have been killed during the strikes, a fact Azhar is allegedly hiding to prevent a total mutiny among the ranks.
Is Lashkar-e-Taiba overshadowing Jaish-e-Mohammed?
Indian agencies have observed a significant shift in the terror landscape in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). While JeM remains "quiet and absent," LeT has become increasingly visible, even reportedly hobnobbing with Hamas members to adopt new hybrid terror tactics.
Many realise that it will not be easy to replace Azhar, and doing so will demoralise the cadre even further. However, others feel that if there is no proper command, then the outfit will begin to wither away. Owing to the absence of a strong leader at the moment, the behaviour of the members of this outfit too has changed. There are launchpads in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). However, it is the operatives of the Lashkar-e-Taiba who seem more active when compared to those part of the JeM, officials say.
Who are the frontrunners for the JeM leadership change?
The outfit is currently in a dilemma: should they appoint a family member to maintain unity or a seasoned commander to resume operations?
Abdul Jabbar: The current head of military affairs and a favourite for those wanting a return to lethal, large-scale attacks.
Abdullah Azhar: Masood's son, who has experience managing the group's financial operations via digital wallets.
Talha Al Saif: Azhar's brother, though his role is primarily limited to propaganda and funding.
Is the "sick" act a ploy to evade Indian forces?
Initial assessments suggested that Azhar's "broken" persona might be a tactical ruse to lower his profile and avoid being targeted by Indian precision strikes. However, recent intercepts have confirmed genuine bickering among top-tier leaders over a transition plan, reported IANS.