With Kerala set to go to the State Assembly polls on 9 April, a pre-poll survey by Citizens Opinion Research and Evaluation (CORE) for Mathrubhumi has provided the first look at the state's political mood.

The survey covered 31,706 respondents across all 140 constituencies between 23 and 30 March. It aimed to understand voter preferences and the performance of different political alliances. Respondents were asked a simple question: which alliance's candidate do you want to win in your constituency, or who do you think will win?

Researchers analysed the leads in three clear categories:

• Tight fight: lead of 0 to 2.5% - the contest is very close and could go either way.
• Slight advantage: lead of 2.51% to 4% - one candidate has a small but noticeable edge.
• Strong possibility: lead above 4% - the candidate is likely to win or retain the seat.

Here is the breakdown for 35 key seats, showing the candidates, their parties, the percentage of votes they received, and the size of their lead:

1. Ernakulam: A strong possibility for the UDF. T.J. Vinod (INC) leads with 45.05%, followed by the LDF's Sabu George (ISJD) at 38.06% and the NDA's P.R Shivashankar (BJP) at 16.89%. Lead: 6.99%.
2. Manjeri: A strong possibility for the UDF. Adv. Rahmathulla (IUML) leads with 51.41%, followed by the LDF's Musthafa V.M. (CPI-IND) at 40.47% and the NDA's Padmashree M (BJP) at 8.12%. Lead: 10.94%.
3. Kodungallur: A strong possibility for the LDF. V.R. Sunil Kumar (CPI) leads with 46.03%, followed by the UDF's O. J. Janeesh (INC) at 39.03% and the NDA's Dr Varghese George (TWENTY20) at 14.94%. Lead: 7%.
4. Azhikode: A strong possibility for the LDF. K.V. Sumesh (CPM) leads with 48.04%, followed by the UDF's Adv. Kareem Cheleri (IUML) at 41.98% and the NDA's K.K. Vinod Kumar (BJP) at 9.98%. Lead: 6.06%.
5. Puthuppally: A strong possibility for the UDF. Chandy Oommen (INC) leads with 56.98%, followed by the LDF's K M Radhakrishnan (CPM) at 35% and the NDA's Raveendranath Vakathanam (BJP) at 8.02%. Lead: 21.98%.
6. Paravur: A strong possibility for the UDF. V.D. Satheesan (INC) leads with 49.78%, followed by the LDF's E T Taison Master (CPI) at 38.72% and the NDA's Valsala Prasannakumar (BJP) at 11.50%. Lead: 11.06%.
7. Kuttiady: A slight advantage for the UDF. Parakkal Abdulla (IUML) leads with 48.36%, followed by the LDF's K.P. Kunhammed Kutty Master (CPM) at 45.16% and the NDA's Ramadas Manaleri (BJP) at 6.48%. Lead: 3.2%.
8. Mankada: A strong possibility for the UDF. Manjalamkuzhi Ali (IUML) leads with 52.80%, followed by the LDF's Kunnath Muhammed (CPM) at 42.98% and the NDA's Lijoy Paul (BJP) at 4.22%. Lead: 9.82%.
9. Neyyattinkara: A tight fight for the UDF. N. Sakthan (INC) leads with 42.39%, followed by the LDF's K. Ansalan (CPM) at 42.13% and the NDA's S. Rajasekharan Nair (BJP) at 15.48%. Lead: 0.26%.
10. Alathur: A strong possibility for the LDF. T.M. Sasi (CPM) leads with 52.36%, followed by the UDF's K.M Febin (INC) at 32.36% and the NDA's K.V. Prasanna Kumar (BJP) at 15.28%. Lead: 20.00%.
11. Kalamassery: A strong possibility for the LDF. P. Rajeev (CPM) leads with 48.57%, followed by the UDF's Adv. V.E. Abdul Gafoor (IUML) at 44.07% and the NDA's M.P. Binu (BDJS) at 7.36%. Lead: 4.5%.
12. Koyilandy: A slight advantage for the LDF. K. Dasan (CPM) leads with 45.36%, followed by the UDF's K. Praveen Kumar (INC) at 42.04% and the NDA's Praphul Krishnan (BJP) at 12.6%. Lead: 3.32%.
13. Pala: A slight advantage for the UDF. Mani C. Kappan (KDP) leads with 41.01%, followed by the LDF's Jose K. Mani (KC-M) at 37.82% and the NDA's Shone George (BJP) at 21.17%. Lead: 3.19%.
14. Wadakkanchery: A strong possibility for the LDF. Xavier Chittilappilly (CPM) leads with 47.84%, followed by the UDF's Vaisakh Narayanaswamy (INC) at 40.77% and the NDA's Adv. Ullas Babu (BJP) at 11.39%. Lead: 7.07%.
15. Alappuzha: A strong possibility for the LDF. P.P. Chitharanjan (CPM) leads with 48.16%, followed by the UDF's A.D. Thomas (INC) at 40.18% and the NDA's M.J. Job (BJP) at 11.66%. Lead: 7.98%.
16. Puthukkad: A strong possibility for the LDF. K.K. Ramachandran (CPM) leads with 46.98%, followed by the UDF's K.M. Baburaj (INC) at 28.56% and the NDA's A. Nagesh (BJP) at 24.46%. Lead: 18.42%.
17. Nattika: A strong possibility for the LDF. Geetha Gopi (CPI) leads with 46.75%, followed by the UDF's Sunil Laloor (INC) at 29.76% and the NDA's C.C. Mukundan (BJP) at 23.49%. Lead: 16.99%.
18. Thiruvambady: A slight advantage for the LDF. Linto Joseph (CPM) leads with 48.26%, followed by the UDF's C.K. Kasim (IUML) at 45.39% and the NDA's Sunny Thomas (Twenty20) at 6.35%. Lead: 2.87%.
19. Peravoor: A tight fight for the UDF. Sunny Joseph (INC) leads with 47.79%, followed by the LDF's K.K. Shailaja Teacher (CPM) at 45.81% and the NDA's Paily Vathiattu (BDJS) at 6.4%. Lead: 1.98%.
20. Thodupuzha: A strong possibility for the UDF. Apu John Joseph (KC-J) leads with 49.81%, followed by the LDF's Cyriac Chazhikadan (KC-M) at 38.77% and the NDA's Roy A Varicattu(TWENTY20) at 11.42%. Lead: 11.04%.
21. Changanassery: A tight fight for the LDF. Job Michael (KC-M) leads with 44.18%, followed by the UDF's Vinu Job (KC-J) at 41.96% and the NDA's B. Radhakrishna Menon (BJP) at 13.86%. Lead: 2.22%.
22. Vattiyoorkavu: A tight fight for the LDF. Adv. V.K. Prasanth (CPM) leads with 38.61%, followed by the UDF's K. Muraleedharan (INC) at 36.74% and the NDA's R. Sreelekha (BJP) at 24.65%. Lead: 1.87%.
23. Haripad: A strong possibility for the UDF. Ramesh Chennithala (INC) leads with 46.57%, followed by the LDF's T.T. Jismon (CPI) at 37.24% and the NDA's Sandeep Vachaspati (BJP) at 16.19%. Lead: 9.33%.
24. Thrithala: A tight fight for the UDF. V.T. Balram (INC) leads with 46.96%, followed by the LDF's M.B. Rajesh (CPM) at 44.69% and the NDA's V. Unnikrishnan Master (BJP) at 8.35%. Lead: 2.27%.
25. Beypore: A strong possibility for the LDF. P.A. Mohammed Riyas (CPM) leads with 47.37%, followed by the UDF's P.V. Anvar (AITC) at 38.02% and the NDA's Adv. K.P. Prakash Babu (BJP) at 14.61%. Lead: 9.35%.
26. Kanhangad: A strong possibility for the LDF. Adv. Govindan Pallikkappil (CPI) leads with 49.58%, followed by the UDF's Shaiji Ottappally (KC) at 36.56% and the NDA's Balraj M (BJP) at 13.86%. Lead: 13.02%.
27. Kollam: A strong possibility for the UDF. Bindu Krishna (INC) leads with 43.84%, followed by the LDF's S. Jayamohan (CPM) at 39.2% and the NDA's Dr. Prathap Kumar N (BJP) at 16.96%. Lead: 4.64%.
28. Malappuram: A strong possibility for the UDF. P.K. Kunhalikutty (IUML) leads with 60.12%, followed by the LDF's K.T. Mujeeb Rahman (NCP-S) at 35.92% and the NDA's Aswathi Gupthakumar (BJP) at 3.96%. Lead: 24.2%.
29. Ponnani: A strong possibility for the LDF. Adv. M.K. Sakeer (CPM) leads with 48.98%, followed by the UDF's K.P. Noushad Ali (INC) at 44.06% and the NDA's Maneesh Janakeeyam (BDJS) at 6.96%. Lead: 4.92%.
30. Shornur: A strong possibility for the LDF. P. Mammikutty (CPM) leads with 46.51%, followed by the UDF's P. Harigovindan (INC) at 34.61% and the NDA's Sanku T Das (BJP) at 18.88%. Lead: 11.9%.
31. Nemom: A tight fight for the LDF. V. Sivankutty (CPM) leads with 39.16%, followed by the NDA's Rajeev Chandrasekhar (BJP) at 36.77% and the UDF's K.S. Sabarinathan (INC) at 24.07%. Lead: 2.39%.
32. Payyannur: A strong possibility for the LDF. T.I. Madhusoodanan (CPM) leads with 56.54%, followed by the UDF's V. Kunhikrishnan (INC-IND) at 35.45% and the NDA's A.P. Gangadharan (BJP) at 8.01%. Lead: 21.09%.
33. Palakkad: A slight advantage for the UDF. Ramesh Pisharody (INC) leads with 39.47%, followed by the NDA's Sobha Surendran (BJP) at 35.79% and the LDF's N.M.R. Razak (IND-LDF) at 24.74%. Lead: 3.68%.
34. Kundara: A strong possibility for the UDF. P.C. Vishnunadh (INC) leads with 49.85%, followed by the LDF's S.L. Sajikumar (CPM) at 39.73% and the NDA's Dr. Robin Radhakrishnan (BJP) at 10.42%. Lead: 10.12%.
35. Ettumanoor: A strong possibility for the LDF. V.N. Vasavan (CPM) leads with 46.64%, followed by the UDF's Nattakom Suresh (INC) at 42.02% and the NDA's Athira D. Nair (TWENTY20) at 11.34%. Lead: 4.62%.