New Delhi: This year's Southwest Monsoon is expected to arrive earlier than usual, bringing much-needed relief to the country, which is currently experiencing severe heatwave conditions.
According to new data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), rainfall is likely to reach southern India by the end of May.
The encouraging outlook comes as temperatures in northern and central India soar to as high as 43-44°C.
The monsoon is expected to reach the Andaman and Nicobar Islands between 18 and 25 May. Meteorological forecasts suggest that Kerala and the southern districts of Tamil Nadu may receive above-normal rainfall between 25 May and 1 June. If current atmospheric conditions persist, the monsoon could reach Kerala around 25 May.
The prevailing intense heat is believed to be accelerating the movement of moisture-laden winds from the ocean towards the land. Meteorologists also indicate that El Nino conditions are unlikely during the monsoon's arrival this year. In addition, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is expected to strengthen rainfall activity.
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By the last week of May, strong westerly winds are likely to develop over the southeastern Arabian Sea, potentially drawing moist clouds towards the Indian coastline.
In Thiruvananthapuram, IMD scientist Neetha K Gopal said that heatwave conditions continue across Kerala, with warnings in place for another day. An orange alert has been issued for Palakkad and Thrissur districts, while Kollam has been downgraded to a yellow alert after temperatures dropped by 2°C.
She added that the rest of the state will experience hot and humid conditions, urging people to remain cautious. According to current forecasts, these conditions are likely to persist for the next three days.
Relief is expected soon, with thunderstorms likely to begin from the afternoon of April 26, followed by rainfall from April 27. Based on present analysis, officials expect the warnings to be withdrawn after this period, with no major cause for concern beyond the next few days.
Last year, in 2025, the monsoon also arrived in Kerala ahead of schedule. This early onset of rains is expected to provide significant relief to millions of people, particularly those dependent on agriculture, as well as those seeking respite from the extreme heat.