Rather than how many seats the DMK and AIADMK, who have alternated in power for over five decades, will win, the heated debate in Tamil Nadu after the end of election campaigning is about how many votes the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), which has never even contested a panchayat election before, will secure.
A prominent election analyst has predicted that TVK will get at least two votes from every household. Experts aligned with the DMK camp take comfort in the assumption that six out of every ten votes polled by TVK would come from the AIADMK side. However, the reality is that none of these assumptions have any statistical backing.
Even though the ruling front claims that its victory will be easy if the anti-incumbency votes are split among the AIADMK-BJP alliance, TVK, and Seeman's Naam Tamilar Katchi, the massive crowds flocking to see TVK leader Vijay are clearly causing concern. It is for this reason that, unusually, the DMK was compelled to release a separate manifesto for Chennai city and conduct extensive roadshows.
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Numbers with Stalin
Chief Minister MK Stalin has presented before voters the argument that continuity in governance is needed to sustain the economic growth of the past five years, continue welfare schemes, and protect Tamil identity by resisting the BJP-led central government. The DMK, along with the Congress and Left parties, asserts that theirs is an ideologically grounded alliance.
In the Assembly election held five years ago, the DMK alliance secured 45.4% of the vote. In the Lok Sabha election held two years ago, this rose to 47%. Since then, more parties and leaders have joined the alliance. The Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA), led by the DMK, now has 21 parties, of which 14 are contesting.
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To consolidate minority votes, parties like the Muslim League, Manithaneya Makkal Katchi, Manithaneya Jananayaga Katchi, and SDPI are part of the alliance. Most recently, Asaduddin Owaisi's Majlis party has also extended support. Christian organisations, including the Tamil Nadu Bishops Council, have openly backed the ruling front. Dalit support has been secured by keeping the VCK within the alliance. By celebrating the defeat of the delimitation bill in Parliament, Stalin has further cemented his image as a national leader from Tamil Nadu.
History with Edappadi
On the other hand, AIADMK General Secretary Edappadi K. Palaniswami has stated that the alliance with the BJP is purely for electoral purposes. He is well aware that, despite being an ally, the BJP is also looking to occupy space if AIADMK weakens.
AIADMK's hope lies in the historical fact that Tamil Nadu voters have never given consecutive terms to the DMK in the past half-century. Since AIADMK, formed after a split from the DMK, first came to power in 1977, the parent party has not managed to win two consecutive terms.
After the death of former Chief Minister Jayalalithaa, AIADMK has faced a leadership crisis, making this election crucial for its survival. While the party has lost strength in urban centres like Chennai, election rallies indicate that it still holds significant influence among rural voters and farmers.
AIADMK's criticisms of the government focus on corruption, nepotism, and law-and-order issues. The BJP alleges that the DMK government serves only the Stalin family. The presence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah in campaign rallies has energised the NDA. Former state BJP president K. Annamalai, who had earlier kept some distance from the leadership, became active in the final phase of campaigning. The NDA includes 12 parties, including PMK, Tamil Maanila Congress, and AMMK.
Youth with Vijay
Actor Vijay entered the political arena with his party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, raising the slogan of liberating Tamil Nadu from the corrupt rule of Dravidian parties. Apart from assuring that corruption will not be tolerated, TVK has not been able to present a distinct policy programme different from the Dravidian parties.
Although Vijay has declared the DMK as a political opponent and the BJP as an ideological opponent, TVK's focus has largely been on opposing the DMK.
TVK's hopes rest on the youth who throng roadshows, where even speeches are absent, just to catch a glimpse of their favourite star. A large section of fans dream that TVK will secure a majority in its very first election and that Vijay will become Chief Minister.
There are also those who believe that if TVK captures a portion of the Dravidian parties' votes, neither DMK nor AIADMK will get a clear majority, making Vijay a kingmaker.
Due to the rejection of one candidate's nomination, TVK is contesting in 233 constituencies under the whistle symbol. In Edappadi, it is supporting an independent candidate.
Only a few of its candidates have grassroots support. The absence of a strong organisational structure, cadre base, and financial resources remains a hurdle in converting fan following into votes. Even so, every vote secured by TVK is likely to become a headache for the major parties.