The survey shows a clear edge for the TMC not just in seats but also in vote share, reinforcing its electoral dominance.

In the 294-member Assembly, the Mamata Banerjee-led party is projected to win between 184 and 194 seats, well above the majority mark. The BJP is estimated to secure 98 to 108 seats, while smaller parties are expected to remain marginal.

The vote share gap further underlines the advantage. The TMC is projected at 41.9%, compared to the BJP's 34.9%, indicating a decisive lead that could translate into a strong mandate.

Mamata Banerjee continues to be the face of the party's appeal, with 48.5% of respondents preferring her as Chief Minister. BJP leader Suvendu Adhikari trails at 33.4%. Additionally, 36.5% of respondents expressed willingness to re-elect sitting TMC MLAs, suggesting a degree of incumbent support.

Mixed governance feedback, unemployment top concern

Despite the strong electoral outlook, public opinion on governance remains divided. Around 43.3% of respondents rated the government's performance as "good" or "very good," while a significant section expressed dissatisfaction: 20.6% termed it "very poor" and 18.3% "poor."

Community-wise trends reveal sharper contrasts. Muslim respondents showed higher satisfaction levels, whereas upper-caste Hindus and Scheduled Tribes were more critical. Dissatisfaction patterns remained broadly consistent across regions and age groups.

Also read: West Bengal Assembly Election 2026 survey: Is Mamata Banerjee still voters' top choice for CM?

Unemployment has emerged as the dominant election issue, cited by 37.2% of respondents. Law and order, including women's safety, ranked second at 15.9%, followed by price rise (10.5%) and corruption (10.3%). Concerns linked to SIR also figured prominently among specific groups.

BJP's challenges:

The BJP, meanwhile, faces perception challenges. Internal infighting (19.9%), lack of a strong state leader (17.2%), and a perceived disconnect with Bengal's cultural landscape (12.5%) are seen as key weaknesses. Organisational gaps and messaging issues further weigh on its prospects, while 22.5% of respondents remained undecided about the party's shortcomings.

Taken together, the findings suggest that while voter concerns persist, the TMC's leadership advantage and vote share lead could secure Mamata Banerjee a fourth consecutive term in office.