New Delhi: India is likely to experience below normal southwest monsoon rainfall in 2026, marking the first such occurrence in three years, according to the India Meteorological Department's initial forecast released Monday.
The seasonal rainfall for June to September is projected at 92 per cent of the long-period average, raising concerns over farm output, inflation and economic growth in Asia's third-largest economy. The monsoon remains critical to India, supplying nearly 70 per cent of annual rainfall and supporting agriculture across almost half the country's farmland.
Quantitatively, rainfall is expected to be around 92 per cent of the long-period average of 87 cm, translating to roughly 80 cm for the season, with a model error margin of plus or minus 5 per cent. The IMD classifies rainfall below 96 per cent of this benchmark as below normal. The monsoon typically reaches Kerala around June 1 and withdraws by mid-September.
IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said evolving oceanic conditions are likely to shape this year's outcome. "Currently weak La Niña-like conditions are transitioning to neutral conditions, but after June it is very likely that El Niño will develop," he said. El Niño, marked by warming in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, is usually associated with reduced rainfall in India and has historically led to drought-like conditions in some years.
However, officials noted that a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to form during the latter half of the season, which could partly offset the adverse impact of El Niño. "Positive IOD leads to more rainfall, so we expect that this will counter the impact," Mohapatra said.
The forecast also factors in slightly below-normal Northern Hemisphere snow cover between January and March, a condition that typically supports monsoon rainfall. Even so, spatial distribution is expected to remain uneven, with large parts of the country likely to receive below-normal precipitation, while some regions in the northeast, northwest and southern peninsula may see normal to above-normal rainfall.
Economists caution that weaker rainfall could affect production of key crops such as rice, pulses and oilseeds, while pushing up food prices.
Retail inflation stood at 3.4 per cent in March, but analysts warn it could rise above 4.5 per cent during the fiscal year. India's growth is currently projected at 6.8 to 7.2 per cent, though risks remain tied to weather patterns and global uncertainties.