The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open on a muted note Tuesday, tracking mixed global market cues, amid hopes of a US-Iran ceasefire deal.
The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a flat start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 23,680 level, a premium of nearly 22 points from the Nifty futures' previous close.
On Monday, the Indian stock market saw a sharp recovery from the day's lows and ended flat with a positive bias.
The Sensex closed 77.05 points, or 0.10%, higher at 75,315.04, while the Nifty 50 settled 6.45 points, or 0.03%, higher at 23,649.95.
Here's what to expect from Sensex, Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty today:
Sensex Prediction
Sensex took support near 74,200 and bounced back sharply, while surging over 1,200 points from the day's lowest point.
"We are of the view that the intraday market texture is non-directional; hence, level-based trading would be the ideal strategy for day traders. For day traders, 75,000 would act as a trend-decider level. As long as Sensex is trading above this level, a pullback formation is likely to continue," said Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities.
On the higher side, the pullback move could continue till 75,500 - 75,800, while on the flip side, below 75,000, Sensex could retest the levels of 74,200 - 74,000, he added.
Mayank Jain, Market Analyst, Share.Market by PhonePe said that the intraday bottom near 74,180 forms the line of defense for the bulls, and a decisive break below the 74,000 zone could trigger a deeper wave of panic selling toward the 73,500 level.
"For Sensex to break out of this volatile range, the first major task is to reclaim and cross the 76,500 hurdle," Jain said.
Nifty Options Data
In the derivatives segment, notable call writing was observed at the 23,700 and 23,800 strikes, while put writing was concentrated at the 23,500 and 23,400 levels, indicating a broader trading range with support shifting near lower levels.
Nifty 50 Prediction
Nifty 50 index formed a bullish candle on the daily chart with a lower high and a lower low and shadows in either direction.
"A long green candle was formed on the daily chart after a lower opening. Technically, this market action indicates a counter attack of bulls from the lower levels. Nifty 50 is currently moving within a broader high low range of 23,800 - 23,200 levels," said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.
According to him, having bounced back from near the lower range of 23,200 levels on Monday, the chances of Nifty 50 moving up further and retesting the crucial hurdle again around 23,800 - 23,850 levels in the short term. Immediate support is placed at 23,300.
Nilesh Jain, VP- Head of Technical and Derivative research at Centrum Finverse Ltd. noted that the immediate hurdle for the Nifty 50 is placed near its 50-DMA at 23,770, while key support is seen around 23,300 levels.
"The momentum indicators and oscillators have turned bearish, and the MACD has also generated a sell crossover, indicating that short-term weakness may continue. Meanwhile, India VIX surged 4% to settle at 19.50, which remains a key concern for the bulls. A sustained decline below the 18 mark would be crucial for bullish momentum to regain strength," said Jain.
Overall, he expects the Nifty 50 index to trade in a broader range of 23,300 - 23,800 levels in the near term.
Bank Nifty Prediction
Bank Nifty index ended 173.35 points, or 0.32%, lower at 53,537.00 on Monday, forming a bullish hammer-like candlestick pattern on the daily timeframe, indicating buying support emerging from lower levels.
"A closer look at the Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) suggests that the PSU Bank index continues to remain in the lagging quadrant, indicating weak relative strength and momentum. In contrast, the Private Bank index has moved from the lagging quadrant into the improving quadrant, pointing towards a gradual improvement in momentum within the private banking space," said Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.
Going ahead, he believes the immediate support for the Bank Nifty index is placed in the 53,100 - 53,000 zone, and any sustainable move below this zone could result in Bank Nifty extending its weakness towards 52,700, followed by 52,400 in the short term.
"On the upside, the immediate resistance for the Bank Nifty index is placed in the 53,900 - 54,000 zone," said Shah.
Bajaj Broking Research highlighted that the Bank Nifty index holding above the key support area of 52,700 - 52,400 will lead to a pullback towards the recent breakdown area of 54,000 and 54,700 levels in the coming sessions.
"However, the Bank Nifty index needs to form higher high and higher low on a sustained basis in the daily chart and a move above the breakdown area of 54,400 - 54,700 to signal a pause in the recent downtrend. Failure to do so will lead to consolidation in the range of 52,700 - 54,000," said the brokerage house.
Key support for Bank Nifty is placed at 52,700 - 52,400 levels being the confluence of the lower band of the 8th April gap area and the 61.8% retracement of the previous pullback (49,955 - 57,456), it added.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.