The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open lower on Thursday, tracking weak global market cues amid rising crude oil prices and a hawkish US Federal Reserve policy.
The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a negative start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 24,165 level, a discount of nearly 86 points from the Nifty futures' previous close.
On Wednesday, the Indian stock market ended higher, with the benchmark Nifty 50 closing above 24,100 level.
The Sensex jumped 609.45 points, or 0.79%, to close at 77,496.36, while the Nifty 50 settled 181.95 points, or 0.76%, higher at 24,177.65.
Here's what to expect from Sensex, Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty today:
Sensex Prediction
Sensex witnessed profit booking at higher levels, however, analysts believe the short-term outlook of the market remains positive.
"We are of the view that the short-term trend is still in a positive zone, but a fresh uptrend rally is possible only after Sensex surpasses 77,800 or the 50-day SMA (Simple Moving Average). Once this level is crossed, the index could retest the level of 78,100. Further upside may also continue, potentially lifting Sensex to the 78,500 - 78,700 range," said Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities.
On the downside, if Sensex falls below 77,200, market sentiment could turn negative, and below this level, the index could slip to the 76,500 - 76,300 range, he added.
Nifty Options Data
In the derivatives segment, significant put writing at the 24,000 strike and aggressive call writing at the 24,300 strike indicate expectations of a range-bound market in the near term. Given these dynamics, analysts advise a cautious trading approach.
Nifty 50 Prediction
Nifty 50 index formed a small bullish candle with a sizable, long upper shadow, signaling intraday volatility and selling pressure at higher levels as the index consolidates around the 20 days EMA.
"A reasonable positive candle was formed on the daily chart with long upper shadow. Nifty 50 on the intraday chart like 60 mins has formed a bullish pattern like higher tops and bottoms. This is positive indication," said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.
According to him, the underlying trend of Nifty 50 remains positive amidst volatility. "On the way up, the market may encounter further resistance around 24,400 - 24,500 before breaking out of the hurdle. Immediate support is placed at 24,000 levels," he added.
Mayank Jain, market analyst, Share.Market noted that the support for Nifty 50 is placed at 23,850 - 24,000.
"The 24,000 psychological level has now become a key base. If this level is breached, the next major support zone lies at 23,750. Resistance lies at 24,400 - 24,500. This area is currently acting as a stiff supply zone. A decisive close above this level is essential to sustain the recovery toward the 24,800 target," said Jain.
The India VIX slipped to 17.44, indicating that immediate panic is subsiding; however, elevated oil prices are keeping "underlying anxiety" alive in the market, he added.
Bank Nifty Prediction
Bank Nifty index ended 3.25 points, or 0.01%, higher at 55,403.60 on Wednesday, forming a small body bearish candle with a noticeable upper wick and a small lower wick, highlighting its continued inability to hold higher levels.
"Notably, this marks the sixth instance in the last 11 sessions where the Bank Nifty index has rallied intraday but failed to sustain, resulting in prominent upper wicks on the charts. Going ahead, the immediate support for Bank Nifty is placed in the 55,000 - 54,900 zone. Any sustainable move below this zone could result in Bank Nifty extending its weakness towards 54,600, followed by 54,300 in the short term," said Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.
On the upside, he believes the zone of 55,900 - 56,000 zone is likely to act as an immediate resistance.
Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities highlighted that the Bank Nifty index is hovering near the middle Bollinger Band, placed around 55,000, while the band width remains wide. The index is oscillating around its mean rather than trending in either direction.
"The RSI is placed near 48, slipping below the neutral zone. The MACD remains in positive territory; however, the histogram has begun to contract. On the upside, the 56,000 - 56,500 zone remains the resistance band. On the downside, 55,000 - 54,600 remains the immediate support zone; holding above this range will be important to maintain the current recovery setup," said Mehra.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.

