For years, we've been told that the H1B lottery is a fair, random selection process. However, some applicants' experiences suggest otherwise.
An applicant shared their anecdotal evidence claiming that people at top private equity firms have been applying for 4 years, and still haven't been selected. Meanwhile, a small consulting firm has seen over 80% of its applicants get picked in recent years.
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Another startup with just 3-4 applications per year has never missed a selection in three years. A lawyer familiar with the system backs this claim, saying that the lottery might not be fully random as certain industries or company sizes that benefit the government could have an edge.
However, this is just a man's word and should be taken with a pinch of salt. If the system was indeed rigged big immigration law firms would have caught on and taken action.
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Proving bias in a system with no transparency is nearly impossible. But at the same time, the USCIS already has so many problems on its plate, that indulging in lottery fraud would just invite unwanted trouble.
The pattern and disparities between the success rates of small and large firms could simply be down to their scale and the number of applicants they send every year. This could raise doubts among frustrated H-1B aspirants who have been trying for years but giving this too much thought without concrete evidence could be a waste of mental space.