New Delhi: India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast above-normal rainfall amid rising heat stress in several regions.
IMD on Friday released its monthly temperature and rainfall outlook for May 2026
Temperature Trends :
According to IMD, maximum temperatures in May are likely to remain normal to below normal across large parts of the country. However, above-normal temperatures are expected in southern peninsular India, parts of the northeast, and northwest India.
Minimum temperatures, on the other hand, are forecast to be above normal in most regions. However, parts of northwest and central India, along with adjoining peninsular and northeastern areas, may experience normal to below-normal night temperatures.
Heatwave Outlook :
IMD has warned of above-normal heatwave days in select regions, including the foothills of the Himalayas, east coast states, and parts of Gujarat and Maharashtra. A heatwave is defined as a period of abnormally high temperatures exceeding the seasonal average.
Rainfall Forecast :
Rainfall across the country in May 2026 is projected to be above normal, exceeding 110% of the Long Period Average (LPA). Most regions are likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall, except parts of east and northeast India and east-central India, where below-normal rainfall is expected.
Climate Drivers :
IMD noted that ENSO-neutral conditions are currently transitioning towards El Niño in the equatorial Pacific, with models indicating its development during the upcoming southwest monsoon season.
At the same time, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral but is likely to turn positive towards the latter part of the monsoon season, potentially influencing rainfall distribution.
Impact on Agriculture
The forecast presents moderately favourable conditions for harvesting and threshing of late rabi crops, especially in north and northwest India, due to relatively milder daytime temperatures.
However, IMD cautioned that :
Localised heat in southern, northeastern, and northwestern regions may cause heat stress during critical crop stages, affecting rice, maize, pulses, and vegetables.
Higher night temperatures could increase respiration losses, reducing grain filling efficiency.
Increased heatwave days may lead to moisture stress, triggering flower and fruit drop in crops such as mango, banana, tomato, and chilli, along with sunburn damage.
Rapid soil moisture depletion in heatwave-prone areas may raise irrigation demand and impact summer crops.