According to a report by the American think tank Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), armed conflict between India and Pakistan is likely in 2026. In May of last year, the two countries fought a four-day war involving the use of drones and missiles.

According to the report, there is also a moderate likelihood of war between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The CFR, which surveys American foreign policy experts, rates the likelihood of conflict between India and Pakistan as "moderate." The council estimates that this potential conflict would have a moderate impact on American interests. There is a moderate possibility that armed conflict might increase due to rising terrorist activities.

In May of this year, a brief four-day war broke out between India and Pakistan, involving heavy use of drones and missiles. This escalation began with the Pahalgam attack by Pakistan-sponsored terrorists. On April 22, terrorists attacked Pahalgam, killing 26 people.

In response to this attack, India launched Operation Sindoor, targeting terrorists and their hideouts in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. Pakistan also launched retaliatory attacks, most of which failed.

Accelerated Arms Purchases After the War

Despite the ceasefire, both India and Pakistan have accelerated their defense equipment purchases. India's Defence Acquisition Council recently approved the purchase of drones, surface-to-air missiles, and guided bombs worth Rs 79,000 crore.

Similarly, Pakistan has initiated negotiations with Turkey and China to purchase new drones and air defense systems. Pakistan is taking these steps after learning from the catastrophic failure of its air defense system during Operation Sindoor.