Historically known as Now-Jeera, the “resting place of boats” for Ahom royalty, Nazira has grown into a focal point for the Congress party’s survival amid the rising influence of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

The principal contest pits the sitting MLA and Leader of Opposition Debabrata Saikia of the Congress against BJP candidate Mayur Borgohain. Saikia, son of the late former Chief Minister Hiteswar Saikia, is seeking a fourth consecutive term. According to observers, a loss in Nazira would represent a significant setback for Congress leadership and could indicate an erosion of one of the party’s last strongholds in the region.

Since 2011, Saikia has held the seat, but recent electoral data suggests BJP support is increasing. In the 2021 state polls, Saikia won with 52,387 votes, comprising 47.56% of the vote share, narrowly edging out Mayur Borgohain, who secured 51,704 votes (46.94%). The margin was only 683 votes, reflecting intensified competition. Borgohain will again contest the seat in 2026, with BJP leaders predicting a victory margin exceeding 30,000 votes.

The BJP’s vote share has risen steadily since 2016, when its candidate received 38,014 votes as Saikia won with 52,869 votes. This upward trend poses a considerable challenge to Congress, highlighting a potential shift in voter allegiance within the Ahom-dominated constituency.

Retaining Nazira is of strategic importance for Congress, given that it is held by their Leader of Opposition and carries deep symbolic value due to its association with Hiteswar Saikia. The contest encapsulates a broader state-wide political battle, with the BJP-led alliance, including the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and Bodoland People’s Front (BPF), promoting a “Double Engine” development agenda aimed at breaching Congress strongholds in Sivasagar district.

Congress is leading a six-party coalition known as “Maha-Jot,” which includes Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP) and Raijor Dal, seeking to consolidate the anti-BJP vote and avoid splits that nearly compromised Saikia’s previous victory.

In recent days, BJP representatives have expressed confidence in not only winning the Nazira seat but doing so with a significant margin. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) comprising BJP, AGP, and BPF aims to retain power in Assam’s 126-seat Legislative Assembly. Meanwhile, Congress faces opposition from this alliance through its multi-party bloc, which also includes CPI(M), CPI(ML), and the All Party Hill Leaders Conference.

Located adjacent to Garhgaon, the ancient Ahom capital, Nazira holds substantial cultural significance, with the Ahom community considered a crucial electoral demographic. Congress depends on longstanding historical ties, while the BJP seeks to attract the same voters through infrastructure initiatives and cultural identity projects.

Additionally, Nazira falls under the Jorhat Lok Sabha constituency, currently represented by Assam Pradesh Congress Committee President Gaurav Gogoi, regarded as a prominent Congress figure in these pivotal elections.