CPI(M) General Secretary MA Baby stated on Thursday that exit polls can sometimes yield contradictory results after pollsters forecasted a potential defeat for the Left Democratic Front (LDF) in the Kerala Assembly elections.
“The exit polls give at times contradictory results…In the case of Kerala, it could be very close to reality because it’s a very close fight. There would still be the possibility of us getting a majority,” Baby told ANI.
The exit polls projected that the United Democratic Front (UDF) is set to displace the ruling LDF, ending its decade-long governance in the state. Axis My India predicted a comfortable majority for the UDF, anticipating it to win 78 to 90 seats out of the 140-member assembly. It estimated the LDF would secure 49 to 62 seats, while the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) would win zero to three seats.
According to People’s Pulse, the LDF is poised to obtain 55 to 60 seats, the UDF 75 to 85 seats, and the NDA zero to three seats. JVC forecasted a UDF win with 72 to 84 seats, LDF 52 to 60 seats, and the NDA three to eight seats.
Regarding the exit polls for Tamil Nadu and West Bengal, MA Baby commented: “In Tamil Nadu, the exit poll predicts DMK-led alliance victory. But there is one exit poll with regard to Tamil Nadu also, which says that Vijay’s outfit may get a majority. So it’s not a uniform verdict coming from Tamil Nadu, too. In the case of West Bengal, I don’t think that through a genuine electoral process, the BJP would be able to get a majority there.”
MA Baby further accused the Election Commission of attempts to assist the BJP in assembly elections, expressing concern about possible “elements of rigging” during the counting scheduled for May 4. “The way in which Special intensive revision had been implemented in West Bengal. Everywhere, the Election Commission and CEC Ganesh Kumar are trying to help the BJP…There would be elements of rigging in some places that cannot be ruled out. So we have to wait and see how the entire electoral process has functioned in the state of West Bengal,” he said.
Exit polls forecast that the BJP-led NDA is likely to win in Assam, while the Congress-led UDF is projected to prevail in Kerala. Most surveys also suggest the BJP is on track to form its first government in West Bengal.
The surveys predict the DMK-led alliance will return to power in Tamil Nadu. However, Axis My India projects actor-turned-politician Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) to deliver a strong performance in its debut election in the southern state, potentially matching the DMK’s vote share.
Matrize projected the BJP winning 146-161 seats in West Bengal, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) 125-140 seats, and others 6-10 seats. JVC forecasted BJP 138-159 seats, TMC 131-152 seats, Congress 0-2 seats, Left parties 0-1 seat, and others 0-1 seat. P-Marq exit poll predicted 150-175 seats for BJP, 118-138 for TMC, and 2-6 for others. People Pulse projected 95-100 seats for BJP, 177-187 for TMC, 1-3 for Congress, and 0-1 for Left parties. Poll Diary estimated BJP 142-147 seats, TMC 99-127 seats, Congress 3-5 seats, Left parties 2-3 seats, and others 0-1 seat.
In Tamil Nadu, Axis My India's exit poll forecasted that TVK would win 98-120 seats in its first election, the DMK-led alliance 92-100 seats, and the five-party alliance led by BJP 22-32 seats. According to Axis My India, Vijay leads Chief Minister MK Stalin in preference for the next Chief Minister, with 37 per cent support compared to Stalin's 35 per cent.
Several other exit polls predicted the DMK-led alliance would return to power in Tamil Nadu.