India is expected to experience above-normal rainfall in May 2026, while temperature patterns will vary regionally, with some areas forecast to endure above-normal heatwave conditions, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) stated in its latest monthly outlook.
According to a press release from the Ministry of Earth Sciences, “During May 2026, maximum temperatures are expected to be normal to below normal across many parts of the country.” However, the IMD also noted that “above-normal temperatures are likely in many parts of southern peninsular India, some parts of the northeast, and northwest India.”
The agency added that minimum temperatures are projected to remain above normal across large parts of the country, while certain regions in northwest, central, and adjoining peninsular India may experience normal to below-normal night temperatures.
Regarding heatwave conditions, the IMD warned, “above normal heatwave days are likely over some parts of the foothills of the Himalayas, east coast states, Gujarat and Maharashtra,” indicating a continued risk of extreme heat in select areas.
Rainfall during the month is likely to exceed average levels nationwide. The IMD stated, “The rainfall during May 2026 averaged over the country as a whole is most likely to be above normal (>110% of LPA),” referring to the long-period average. However, below-normal rainfall may affect parts of east, northeast, and east-central India.
The IMD observed that broader climate signals are evolving, with ocean conditions suggesting a warmer phase ahead. It explained, “ENSO-neutral conditions are evolving toward El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific,” and added that models indicate El Nino development during the forthcoming southwest monsoon season.
Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions currently prevail, but “positive IOD conditions are likely to develop towards the end of the monsoon season,” the IMD concluded.