India is likely to witness below-normal southwest monsoon rainfall this year, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday, flagging the possible impact of emerging El Niño conditions.
Addressing a press conference, IMD Director General Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said the country is expected to receive around 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model error margin of plus or minus 5%. The LPA for seasonal rainfall stands at 87 cm, while this year's projection is about 80 cm.
"Quantitatively, the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 92% of LPA," Mohapatra said.
The weather agency pointed to a likely shift in oceanic conditions as a key factor. Climate models suggest El Niño may develop by June, typically associated with weaker monsoon rainfall in India. At present, weak La Niña conditions are transitioning towards an ENSO-neutral phase over the equatorial Pacific.
However, the IMD noted a potential balancing factor. Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are expected to emerge during the latter half of the monsoon season, which could enhance rainfall and partly offset El Niño's adverse impact.
The department also observed that snow cover across the Northern Hemisphere in recent months has been slightly below normal, a factor linked inversely to monsoon performance.
The IMD will issue an updated monsoon forecast in the last week of May.