As the conflict intensifies and shipping through this crucial chokepoint slows, a major question is being raised worldwide: if crude oil from the Gulf stops reaching global markets, which countries would run out of oil first?

Why the Gulf Is Crucial for Global Energy

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The Persian Gulf is one of the world's most important energy hubs. Countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran supply a significant portion of global oil demand. Most of this oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz before reaching markets in Asia, Europe, and other regions.

If this supply route is disrupted, Asian economies are likely to feel the impact first and most severely. Many of these countries depend heavily on Gulf oil for transportation, industry, and electricity generation.

Countries Most Vulnerable to an Oil Shortage

Several Asian nations rely heavily on imported oil and maintain limited reserves. If Gulf supply were completely cut off, these countries could face an energy crisis within weeks.

Pakistan is considered one of the most vulnerable countries. Estimates suggest the country has oil reserves that could last only about 20 to 28 days. Because Pakistan depends heavily on imports, any disruption in supply could trigger a severe fuel shortage within a month.

Indonesia and Vietnam are also at high risk. Indonesia's oil reserves are estimated to last around 20 days, while Vietnam may have only about 15 days of reserves. This makes them highly sensitive to supply disruptions.

Thailand and the Philippines are slightly better positioned, with estimated oil reserves lasting around 60 days, giving them a somewhat larger buffer.

India's Position

India is one of the world's largest oil consumers and imports more than 80% of its crude oil requirements. A large share of these imports comes from the Gulf region, which makes the country vulnerable to disruptions there.

Currently, India reportedly has oil and petroleum reserves sufficient for around 50 days. The government has also attempted to diversify supply sources by increasing imports from Russia and other countries, reducing its dependence on Gulf producers to some extent.

Iran has stated that oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have been restricted mainly for ships belonging to the United States, Israel, and their Western allies.

Countries With Strong Oil Reserves

Some countries are better prepared for potential supply shocks due to large strategic reserves.

Japan imports nearly 95% of its oil from the Middle East, but it has built one of the world's largest petroleum reserves, capable of lasting about 254 to 260 days.

South Korea is also heavily dependent on Gulf oil but maintains reserves that could last around 208 to 210 days.

China, the world's largest oil importer, receives about half of its oil from the Gulf. Its reserves are estimated to last approximately 90 to 104 days.

The United States, now the world's largest oil producer, also holds large strategic reserves. Combined with domestic production, these reserves could last around 161 to 200 days.

Who Would Run Out of Oil First?

If crude oil flows from the Gulf were completely halted, countries with limited reserves and high dependence on imports would be the first to face shortages. Pakistan, Indonesia, and Vietnam could experience severe oil shortages within weeks. Countries like India might have a slightly longer buffer.

Meanwhile, nations with large strategic reserves-such as Japan, South Korea, China, and the United States-could sustain their energy needs for several months.