IMAGE: Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan inaugurates the Perumbalam-Panavally Bridge in Alappuzha. Photograph: @pinarayivijayan X/ANI Photo

Key Points

• Kerala's LDF is chasing an unprecedented third consecutive term, defying the state's decades-old tradition of 'revolving door' politics.
• At 80, Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan remains the LDF's most potent asset, his image as an able administrator during the pandemic and floods still holding sway with a loyal base.
• The BJP will definitely not win the state, but it will likely decide who does: Its consolidation in over 30 constituencies could bleed the Left's traditional Ezhava vote bank.
• A persistent election subplot is the UDF's allegation of a secret 'LDF-BJP' understanding -- a charge that is hard to prove but impossible for the opposition to ignore.

It will be one of the most unpredictable elections Kerala has ever seen.

The CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front coalition, which made history in 2021 by winning two terms in a row, is now aggressively fighting for a hat-trick. Leading the charge is 80-year-old Pinarayi Vijayan, a leader who shows no signs of slowing down.

In 2021, his personal popularity was the single most decisive factor.

The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), having sat in the Opposition for a decade, is understandably impatient. However, chronic infighting continues to plague the party at a time when it has a golden chance to exploit anti-incumbency.

In 2021, the LDF polled 45.4 per cent of the vote, well ahead of the UDF's 39.4 per cent. Had the UDF presented a truly united front back then, the story today might have been different. If it does badly, you can blame the infighting that is publicly being mocked.

This time, the LDF is staking its survival on its governance record: Welfare schemes, infrastructure investment through the Kerala Infrastructure Investment Fund Board, and Vijayan's reputation as a 'crisis manager'.

His efforts to eradicate extreme poverty have been hailed as sincere, while the Opposition is often seen wallowing in trivialities.

Hs aura may have faded slightly, but the LDF's saving grace might be the voter perception that they are the 'lesser evil' compared to a disjointed UDF.

Observers note that communal polarisation is starting to wean away Hindu votes from the UDF.

These votes are drifting toward the BJP or even the LDF, as some voters seek to limit the Muslim League's influence, which won 15 seats in the last assembly polls. It is presently contesting 27 seats, helping the BJP talk of how it is gaining ground.

Do-or-die moment for the UDF

For the Congress, this is likely a 'do-or-die' moment. After ten years out of power, workers are restless. Another loss could trigger a mass exodus of the rank-and-file toward the CPI-M or the BJP.

But Kerala is changing. Its educated middle class now prioritises jobs over doles. This aspirational cohort expects world-class infrastructure, so their children don't have to board a flight to find a future.

The massive exodus of youth to Europe and the Gulf remains a festering wound that the LDF has struggled to address convincingly.

IMAGE: Prime Minister Narendra Modi tries his hand beating a drum during an election rally in Palakkad, March 29, 2026. Photograph: ANI Video Grab

The BJP, meanwhile, is desperate to move beyond its 'zero seat' status in the 140-member assembly. In 2021, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance secured about 12.5 per cent of the vote share but no seats.

A BJP insider tells me that if the party hits 20 per cent this time, the 'lotus' will finally bloom. In a state where winning margins are often as thin as 500 votes, the BJP has become the ultimate 'X-factor'."

The party has unleashed an aggressive campaign, with Prime Minister Modi making numerous visits. They have even co-opted popular social media platforms like Neelakuyil Entertainment to pump political propaganda into the digital feeds of the youth.

The 'Ground Zero' for the BJP is Nemom, where state party President Rajeev Chandrasekhar faces the LDF's V Sivankutty, a minister who has become a vocal face for Kerala's educational autonomy.

In Palakkad, the BJP's Shobha Surendran is running a high-decibel grassroots campaign, hoping to capitalise on the party's recent gains in civic polls.

A new wildcard has entered the fray: 'Twenty2. The party, led by businessman Sabu Jacob, has formally joined the NDA fold. Whether its 'apolitical' image survives this alliance remains a major question mark in Ernakulam.

Perhaps the most significant trend is the gradual drift of Ezhava votes toward the BJP, a community that has long been the bedrock of the Left's power.

IMAGE: Congress General Secretary and Wayanad MP Priyanka Gandhi Vadra poses for a picture with children at the MES Fathima Rahim Central School at Kaithapoyil, Thiruvambady, Kozhikode. Photograph: AICC/ANI Photo

The Kerala Anachronism

For political watchers, Kerala remains a paradox. It is the only state with a CPI-M government that quotes Marx while courting private investment, and speaks of class struggle while surviving on Rs. 80,000 crores in foreign remittances, making it the leading money-order economy in India.

If the Left loses Kerala, it will be the first time since 1977 that India is without a single Left-ruled state government.

Beyond the politics, the math is grim. The state is reeling under a projected debt of Rs 640,000 crores. Whoever wins will inherit a nearly empty treasury.

Festering issues like human-wildlife conflict in Wayanad and Idukki, and a silent but deadly drug crisis among the young, continue to be ignored by the main campaign narratives.

Kerala has transformed. Rapid urbanisation and digital saturation have created a generation with global sensibilities. The 2026 election will be the first where urban debates on sustainability and civic freedoms may finally drown out the old rural politics of land and wages.

Ramesh Menon, award-winning journalist, educator, documentary filmmaker and corporate trainer, is the author of Modi Demystified: The Making Of A Prime Minister.

Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff