Key Points

• 'The volume of corruption charges levelled against the Left government is tremendous, unusual for a Left government.'
• 'When you compare the Left and the Congress, while the Congress has a large number of leaders, the Left has only one leader.'
• 'If the Left loses they will survive. Perhaps they will survive better than how they do when they are in power.'

On Thursday, the 9th of April, voters in Kerala will decide who will rule the state for the next five years.

Will the Congress-led United Democratic Front make a comeback as political surveys say?

Or will the Communist Party of India-Marxist Left Democratic Front get another chance?

And how many seats will the Bharatiya Janata Party win this time?

For the first time, it is not going to be a fight between two fronts. There is a third front, the National Democratic Alliance fighting for a place in Kerala's political space.

"It is not a fight between three fronts. There are only two-and-a-half fronts!" Dr J Prabhash, retired professor of political science and former pro vice-chancellor at the University of Kerala, tells Rediff's Shobha Warrier.

The general talk in Kerala is that the UDF will come back to power though the fight is going to be tough. Do you agree with this perception?

Definitely I agree with this perception because the UDF has an edge over the LDF.

The Left government is carrying a baggage of 10 years of anti-incumbency.

Number one. The volume of corruption charges levelled against the Left government is tremendous, unusual for a Left government.

Number two. The Sabarimala gold theft issue.

Number three. The usual issues like unemployment, price rise, etc which are part of every election everywhere in the world.

Apart from that, the failure of the government in multiple fronts like the health sector and higher education though it has performed well in general education.

The allegation is that the police have been highly politicised when the home portfolio is handled by the chief minister himself. The amount of politicisation is much more as this government has been there for 10 years. It is a long period as far as people are concerned.

The degree of politicisation in 5 years will be less when the government is not sure about coming back to power after 5 years.

Then, the arrogance of party functionaries.

All these have created a kind of anti-incumbency which is a little bit higher than compared to what the earlier governments had faced.

IMAGE: Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan during the release of LDF manifesto for the 2026 assembly elections. Photograph: Pinarayi Vijayan/X

Another accusation is that never before a Left government has shown this kind of personality-oriented politics. Everything about this government is centred around Pinarayi Vijayan, and it is not described as a Left government but Pinarayi government...

Very true. Every billboard, every notice has only one face, the chief minister's face. Their slogan is, vote for Pinarayi government 3.0.

It is not Left government, it is Pinarayi government.

It is unusual for the Left and unbecoming of the Communist party.

It has reached a level of personality cult.

Do you think people get tired of this kind of personality politics?

Quite possible. There is a degree of fatigue among the people to see the same face over and over again.

There are merits and demerits to this. The merit is that the person can translate this popularity into votes. It is equally important that the demerits will translate into anti-incumbency.

It also gives the impression that there is no second in command in the party.

IMAGE: Congress leader Shashi Tharoor campaigns for UDF candidate Faizal Babu in Kozhikode South. Photograph: Kind courtesy Shashi Tharoor/X

If the LDF loses, what will happen to the Communist parties? In such an eventuality, they will not be in power anywhere in India. Will they disappear from the political scene?

I don't think they will disappear. They will survive. Perhaps they will survive better than how they do when they are in power.

Whenever they are not in power, they gather their cadres and put them into action. If you look back, you will see that the Left parties grew whenever they were in Opposition.

In Kerala, it was happening because every 5 years, there was a change of government. But that was not the case in West Bengal or Tripura. They were continuously in power for decades. In fact, remaining in power for so long created problems for them. So, when they lost power, they also lost the state.

But here in Kerala, they are in power and out of power alternatively which gave them a sort of vibrancy.

When they were in Opposition, they used to take up the issues of the people, move their cadres into action and revive the party so that they could come to power in the next election.

If the UDF has an advantage in this election, is it only anti-incumbency that is helping them, or do people see anything positive in the front?

I don't think there is anything positive in the front! If they are winning, it is by default.

So, it is going to be a negative vote against the government rather than a positive vote for the UDF.

IMAGE: Dr J Prabhash

Do you think people still perceive the Congress as a party with many leaders who fight among themselves to be the chief minister?

That perception is very much there.

But when you compare the Left and the Congress, while the Congress has a large number of leaders, the Left has only one leader. Having a large number of leaders is as much problematic as having only one leader.

In one party, there is only one leader and no second in command. And in the other, there are many first in command, there are also second in command and third in command too!

Another thing is, the bickering was among the leaders and not among the cadres.

In fact, the recent rebel issue, they handled very efficiently.

But the issue at the leadership level, they could not manage as they should have managed.

• Part 2: 'The Youth Of Kerala Believe In Modi'

Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff