'Remember Vijay had never spoke of himself as a Christian when he was a film star.''The BJP strategy is they want the Christian minority constituency to move away from the DMK.' 'That is what the BJP wants so that it will be very easy to mobilise Hindu votes.' 'This strategy is to weaken the Dravidian ideology and bring in religion based politics into Tamil Nadu.'
IMAGE: Vijay campaigns for the assembly elections in Chennai. Photograph: Kind courtesy TVK Party HQ/X
Key Points
- 'We all believe that Vijay is a kind of a long handle of the BJP in Tamil Nadu in this election.'
- 'The BJP is playing minority politics through Vijay in a very subtle and systemic way.'
- 'AIADMK knows that once it shares power with the BJP, sooner or later the BJP will swallow the party.'
Tamil Nadu goes to the polls on Thursday, April 23, 2026.
Other than the known DMK and the AIADMK fronts, there are Vijay's TVK and Seeman's NTK in the fray.
"The DMK will sail through this election. This is a four-cornered contest. When there is a four-cornered contest, when three parties are working to cut the ruling party's votes, they are sharing the Opposition votes. So, it looks advantage DMK unless something dramatic happens," Dr Ramu Manivannan, former head of the department of politics and public administration, University of Madras, tells Rediff's Shobha Warrier in the concluding segment of a two-part interview.
If the AIADMK loses this election, what will happen to the party? Will it disintegrate?
The AIADMK and BJP will have to part ways then. That's the first logical thing that should happen.
IMAGE: AIADMK General Secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami campaigns in the Alandur constituency in Chennai, March 28, 2026. Photograph: ANI Photo
Will it happen?
It will happen because as long as Edappadi (K Palaniswami, the AIDMK general secretary) is there, he is not going to let the party be taken over by the BJP or Amit Shah and Modi or the state unit.
He is the one who is in complete control of the party. He controls the election symbol of the party, the party flag, the party headquarters, the party assets. Everything is with Edappadi.
There is also a dedicated following for MGR and Jayalalithaa and they are still with the party, and not with Sasikala or T T V Dinakaran.
So the party is still controlled by Edappadi. That's why he has come out very strong during the election campaign.
The loyal party cadres and party money have given him the confidence.
The BJP is not able to cross the barrier of completely breaking the party though that was what they wanted. They wanted to do what they did to the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra, or like going to a very comfortable alliance and seat sharing with Nitish Kumar.
That's where Dravidian politics or the AIADMK's identity comes. The AIADMK under Edappadi does not want to shed its stand. It also knows that once it shares power with the BJP, sooner or later the BJP will swallow the party.
And Edappadi is not a conceder of the game.
Do you expect the BJP to spread its roots in Tamil Nadu like it is doing in Kerala?
Kerala has a strong Muslim base in the Malabar region and a strong Christian base in Central Kerala.
Tamil Nadu does not have religion-based politics for the BJP to grow in that kind of thesis and anti-thesis basis.
That is also one of the strategies of the BJP.
In fact, we all believe that Vijay is a kind of a long handle of the BJP in Tamil Nadu in this election. I will give you the reason for that.
After the Trichy conference, Vijay has never criticised the BJP. He said the BJP is an ideological enemy and the DMK is a political enemy.
My question, if the DMK is a political enemy, then is the DMK an ideological ally?
Second question. If the BJP is an ideological enemy, why is it that he has not taken any issue with the BJP in the last six months?
In the last few months, Vijay has been campaigning very intensely as a minority Christian. Remember he had never spoke of himself as a Christian when he was a film star.
The inner strategy of the BJP is they want the Christian minority constituency to move away from the DMK and rally the Christian votes to a Christian leader in the long run.
This is bringing identity politics of religion into Tamil Nadu politics.
That is what the BJP wants so that it will be very easy to mobilise the Hindu votes.
This strategy is to weaken the Dravidian ideology and bring in religion based politics into Tamil Nadu.
That's why I say that the BJP is playing minority politics through Vijay in a very subtle and systemic way.
He is certainly a long handle for them, and it serves the purpose of the BJP in long-term politics.
IMAGE: Vijay meets voters in Perambur, April 17, 2026. Photograph: Kind courtesy @TVKHQITWingOffl X/ANI Photo
Vijay is drawing huge crowds. Do you think it will translate into votes?
When Seeman got 9% of votes, everybody was surprised.
Seeman has been a third party for the last three elections. Does anyone say that Seeman is an alternative? Nobody says that.
There is always 9% to 10% of voters who would like a third wave in any politics.
Now, this percentage of a third wave might be little more this time because that constituency will have to be shared between Vijay and Seeman.
Seeman will shed some votes now to Vijay. That's why he is very aggressive against Vijay. They are not talking so much about the AIADMK or the DMK. Seeman sees Vijay as a threat.
So if you put together their percentages, it's still about 14% to 15% together.
If the voting percentage of the state increases from 76 to 80%, then you will know that 15% of people have voted for Vijay.
Even if there is a 2% increase in the voting percentage, the DMK will still have 35% or more votes to come back in power.
And the AIADMK will have about 26% to 28% of vote share, but will not have as many seats as last time.
Is having the support of young people and being untested in politics an advantage for Vijay?
Not tested is an advantage for any new party in any country because you don't know what kind of cancer it is.
Vijay will be exposed from the way he campaigns, and from the way he handles situations.
Even MGR needed competent people in the council of ministers. Can you name five people in the TVK who can be part of the administration and govern the state if Vijay wins 234 constituencies?
Even Adolf Hitler was supported by a system, by a very competent machinery of the government and by a very competent set of generals and ideologues, and technology.
Even if the leader at the top is always seemingly alone, there is always a cluster of people working with him, ideologically and politically, making economic and political strategies.
IMAGE: Dravida Munnetra Kazagham President and Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M K Stalin on the campaign trail in Chennai, April 21, 2026. Photograph: @mkstalin/ANI Photo
Many popular film stars have tried and failed in politics. What makes people think that Vijay is going to succeed?
People don't think that. It's Vijay who thinks he will succeed.
Nobody said Vijay, please come and join politics. Did anyone invite Vijay? Was there any mass appeal or people pledging saying that if you come to politics, the state will be better?
People said that to MGR and Vijayakanth.
Vijay will certainly be a spoiler.
Seeman has a strong ideological stand on Tamil nationalism, but Vijay is not talking about any ideology. Between them, who will come out stronger after this election?
Both of them are likely to feel they are going to be the future alternative between Tamil nationalism and cinematic populism with 7% to 8% vote share.
If you look at their age, if you look at their future prospects, they are likely to remain relevant.
IMAGE: Ramu Manivannan
After the 2026 election, what kind of future do you see for all these four fronts?
The AIADMK and BJP will have to go back and reflect.
The BJP wants to have a voice in the legislature and if they get about 8 to 10 seats, you can say they have done a great job.
If Vijay loses both the seats (where he is contesting from), and A, B, C from the TVK win, do you think they will let those guys stay in the forefront in the legislature? Not at all. Because it is a highly egocentric party. So, the party will be happy if Vijay alone wins.
I think Vijay is more likely to go with the Congress in the future. Vijay finds himself as a natural ally of the Congress. Even Rahul Gandhi is ardently following that line so that if there is a natural fallout between the DMK and the Congress, he wants to hook up with the TVK.
Seeman will continue to be on the same level. He is not going to have a rapid rise.
The DMK will sail through this election.
This is a four-cornered contest. When there is a four-cornered contest, when three parties are working to cut the ruling party's votes, they are sharing the Opposition votes.
So, it looks advantage DMK unless something dramatic happens because we will have to leave space for that in politics.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff