"The war in the Middle East… is also reshaping the strategic environment in ways that extend far beyond the region," the report by Japan Forward said, adding that by tying down American attention and resources, the conflict is leaving other regions "more vulnerable than they appear", creating conditions that China has historically been adept at exploiting.
The analysis underscores that Beijing does not necessarily need to trigger crises to gain an advantage. "China's strategic approach does not rely on precipitating crises in Asia… it often benefits more from their absence, particularly when the United States is preoccupied in another theatre."
Drawing on historical patterns, the report points out that periods of intense US engagement in the Middle East have coincided with significant Chinese activity in Asia. "The years of the Iraq War offer an early example… Beijing expanded its footprint in the South China Sea with relatively limited external resistance," the report states.
Similarly, during the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, China increased military pressure around Taiwan. The report noted: "Taiwan recorded more than 900 sorties by the People's Liberation Army into its Air Defense Identification Zone", reflecting a strategy of sustained pressure below the threshold of open conflict.
The report also highlights the impact of US military deployment patterns, stating that when key assets such as carrier strike groups are stationed in regions like the Eastern Mediterranean or Red Sea, "they are necessarily absent from the Western Pacific". This shift, it argues, can alter the strategic balance in the Indo-Pacific. (IANS)