Bangkok, April 30: A little more than a year ago, the government's military was on the back foot in Myanmar's bloody civil war, pushed out of great swaths of the country's north by an alliance of seasoned militias, and forced into defensive action around the rest of the country by other established groups and new pro-democracy guerrillas.

Today the picture has changed.
With its ranks swollen by tens of thousands of new conscripts, the military, known as the Tatmadaw, has reversed some of its losses and appears poised to resume the offensive, while some opposition groups have left the fight and infighting and supply issues have weakened others.
"I think we're nearing a crescendo here where the Tatmadaw is going to reassert itself and the resistance movement is going to peter out," said Morgan Michaels, a Singapore-based analyst with the International Institute of Strategic Studies who runs its Myanmar Conflict Map project. Still, he said, even if the broader resistance movement that has grown since the military seized power stumbles, the conflict is not close to over.
"Armed resistance will always continue in Myanmar until there's a comprehensive, negotiated political solution, but the Tatmadaw has retaken the strategic initiative and everything is in the Tatmadaw's favour."

Weariness after 5 years

Meantime, after five years of fighting that has seen tens of thousands killed, including some 8,000 civilians, and millions displaced from their homes, there is a general weariness, both among the forces fighting the Tatmadaw and the general population, said Aung Thu Nyein, a political analyst from Myanmar who now works in neighbouring Thailand.
There is also great pressure from China for stability in Myanmar, also known as Burma, which is a critical source for its rare earths elements and other natural resources, to ensure its mines and other operations are secure, he said.
Beijing has invested billions of dollars in Myanmar's mines, oil and gas pipelines and other infrastructure and is a major arms supplier to the Tatmadaw, along with Russia. It also carries significant influence with the paramilitary groups that operate in border areas with China, many of whose members are ethnically Chinese.
China initially supported the October 27, 2023, offensive against the Tatmadaw by the Three Brotherhood Alliance, largely due to Beijing's irritation that the military-run government had allowed organised crime operations to proliferate in border regions. But it has since pulled the plug on arms and ammunition supplies to the militias and pressured them to stop fighting.
Of the Three Brotherhood Alliance members, both the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army agreed to ceasefires last year after Chinese-mediated talks, leaving the Arakan Army the only member still actively fighting the Tatmadaw, in the western state of Rakhine.
The Brotherhood Alliance members are all long-standing paramilitary groups organized around ethnic minority lines known as Ethnic Armed Organisations, or EAOs.
Suu Kyi's ouster has also given rise to pro-democracy militias known as People's Defence Forces, or PDFs, many of which are affiliated with the shadow National Unity Government, organsed by former members of Suu Kyi's party and others. (AP)