That is the question uppermost in the minds of voters of Keralam.
Both the fronts - the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Opposition United Democratic Front (UDF) - are on the job of reading the political leaves in an effort to understand the electoral swing that will make or mar their winning prospects.
The guessing game is on in right earnest. The Congress claims that the UDF is set to romp home the winner. The party is basing its optimism on the high turn out of voters, especially of women, and the 'visible' anti-incumbency factor. Conversely, the LDF's confidence stems from the Government's stellar performance during the last decade. The Front firmly believes the anti-incumbency factor is not present at all. The main factor that will help them emerge as the winner is the raft of welfare measures and the unprecedented development witnessed during the last 10 years. Significantly, LDF convener T. P. Ramakrishnan does not think there has been a consolidation of Muslim votes against the Government, as the UDF and the BJP claim. The high turnout, he believes, shows the electorate's earnest desire for continuity. People think that all the gains made during the decade of LDF tenure will be undone without continuity. The Opposition's spin that the high turnout would benefit the UDF is wishful thinking and divorced from reality. That is the burden of the LDF song.
On its part, the BJP believes the high turnout would accelerate its ascendancy in the State. The BJP's good showing in the Lok Sabha elections when it recorded 19 per cent votes, and managed to open its account to the Lok Sabha from Kerala, will be replicated in the Assembly polls too. That is the party's refrain. But past records do not support the BJP's theory. Also, both the LDF and the UDF say the five per cent decline the saffron camp suffered in the local bodies elections proves that the Assembly election is a different ball game altogether, if proof were needed. This being the ground reality, there is no way the BJP can improve its vote percentage.
The LDF also draws comfort from the Nair Service Society's refusal to hop on to the anti-LDF bandwagon. It is also relieved that the Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana (SNDP) Yogam has openly favoured a third term for the LDF Government.
A close look at the heavy polling details is in order. Kerala recorded 78.27 per cent in the elections held on Thursday, April 9. According to the Election Commission of India's(ECI), 80.86 % of female voters, 75.01% of male voters and 57.04% of transgender voters cast their votes. Thursday's voter turnout was higher than that of the 2021 Assembly polls. The State recorded its highest polling percentage in an Assembly election in the 1960 polls, when it stood at 85.72%.
Meanwhile, All India Congress Committee (AICC) general secretary K. C. Venugopal and Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC) president Sunny Joseph have asked the Election Commission to take strict action on allegations of BJP workers handing over money to voters in the presence of its Palakkad candidate Sobha Surendran, a day before the polling day.
A video of the incident, showing alleged BJP workers slipping a wad of currency notes into the hands of a senior citizen at Kannadi in Palakkad, had gone viral earlier in the day. Sobha was later seen angrily arguing with those who were filming the video.
Venugopal said giving money to influence voters is a very serious violation of election rules. The BJP, he added, is used to giving money to sway the voters. The trend was seen in Alappuzha as well, he pointed out. This has happened regularly in what are categorized as BJP's 'A-class' constituencies. He averred.
Sunny Joseph said that the available footage was sufficient material for a prima facie case. The culture of cash for votes, which the BJP is practising in north India is being implemented in Kerala, too, he complained. The source of BJP's money should be probed. The party, Joseph alleged, is trying to purchase democracy with its money power. The BJP candidate also threatened to break the arms of those who captured the footage of the BJP workers paying money to influence voters, he added.
In a later development, the Election Commission has recorded the statements of Sobha Surendran and the complainant C. V. Balan of the Congress. The Revenue Divisional Officer, who is the returning officer of the Palakkad constituency will submit his report to the District Collector. And the Chief Electoral Officer (CEO) will take a decision on the basis of the report. (IPA Service)