Mumbai, May 3: The Indian stock market is likely to remain under pressure in the coming week as investors grapple with rising crude oil prices, persistent foreign fund outflows, and escalating geopolitical tensions.
Alongside these macro triggers, a busy earnings calendar is expected to keep stock-specific action high, even as the broader sentiment stays cautious.
During the last trading session, the Nifty declined 0.73 per cent to close at 24,000, recovering from its day's low, while the Sensex slipped 0.78 per cent to end at 76,891 compared to the previous session.
The sell-off was largely led by oil-sensitive stocks, as crude prices stayed elevated above the $100-per-barrel mark.
Commenting on the Nifty technical outlook, experts said that the price action suggests consolidation with a mildly bullish bias.
"On the upside, resistance levels are placed at 24,350 and 24,600. On the downside, support is seen at 23,900 and 23,550. A breakdown below 23,500 could result in increased selling pressure," an analyst stated.
Looking ahead, market participants are expected to closely track a packed earnings calendar. More than 250 companies are set to announce their results for the March quarter.
Geopolitical developments will also remain a key overhang. Concerns around a potential escalation in tensions between the United States and Iran have kept global markets on edge.
Crude oil prices will continue to be a crucial factor for domestic equities, given India's heavy reliance on imports.
Although prices eased slightly after reports of Iran's willingness to engage in talks, Brent crude continues to hover near $108 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate remains around $101.
Currency movements are another important trigger. The Indian rupee recently hit a record low against the US dollar amid rising oil prices before recovering some ground.
India's benchmark indices Nifty and Sensex are expected to remain range-bound in the near term, with a slight bullish undertone in Nifty but continued caution in the broader market, according to experts on Sunday.
The Nifty began the week on a positive note with a modest gap-up and largely moved within a narrow range - reflecting a consolidation phase.
Despite struggling for most of the week to hold above its short-term averages, the index eventually managed to close above its 20-day exponential moving average and also held above the crucial 100-week EMA level.
Analysts believe this indicates underlying strength and points to a potential shift towards a positive trend.
"The price action suggests consolidation with a mildly bullish bias. On the upside, resistance levels are placed at 24,350 and 24,600," an analyst stated.
"On the downside, support is seen at 23,900 and 23,550. A breakdown below 23,500 could result in increased selling pressure," a market expert stated.
Given the current market structure, traders are advised to remain disciplined and adhere to strict stop-loss strategies amid ongoing volatility, they added.
In contrast, the Nifty Bank index underperformed during the week - reflecting sustained selling pressure at higher levels.
"The Bank Nifty index opened the session on a flat note at 56,162.60, reflecting initial indecision among market participants. It moved higher to register a weekly high of 56,474.95 but failed to sustain at elevated levels, leading to a subsequent correction," an analyst mentioned.
"In the near term, immediate downside support is placed in the 54,350-53,850 zone in case selling pressure re-emerges. On the upside, 55,550 acts as immediate resistance, while 56,200 stands as the next key supply zone," the analyst added.
Meanwhile, the Sensex is currently trading within a tight range, reflecting a cautious market environment.
"On the upside, 77,500-78,000 continues to act as an immediate resistance band, and a sustained move above this zone would be required to improve sentiment and extend the upmove toward 79,000-80,000 levels," an analyst said.
On the downside, 76,300-76,000 serves as immediate support, followed by a stronger base in the 75,600-75,300 range, which is expected to provide a cushion if selling pressure intensifies, they added. (IANS)

