Neither candidate secured a majority in the first round, setting up an October 25 contest after a result that strengthened the right both in the presidential race and Congress.

The result was significant because most expectations had pointed to Lula finishing ahead. Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, also benefited from gains by his family members and party leaders in Congress. Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting to overturn the 2022 election, but his political movement remains a powerful force.

Ambassador R. Viswanathan, a Latin America expert, told StratNewsGlobal that the result showed a clear strengthening of the right.

'Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of the disgraced ex-president Jair Bolsonaro has won the first round of presidential elections in Brazil,' he said. 'He is most likely to win the second round and become president. His family members and his party leaders have also won a number of seats in the Congress. The Right has become stronger while the Left has lost seats in the legislatures.'

Viswanathan attributes the Bolsonaro camp's resilience to what he calls the 'Bible, Beef and Bullet' constituency — evangelical Christians, agribusiness and former members of the security forces. He also believes Lula has struggled to connect with younger voters.
'Lula's rhetoric does not appeal to GenZ, who are avid consumers of Instagram and other social media fake news and misleading narratives. His party has not recovered from the corruption scandals of the past.'

Dr Aparaajita Pandey, Senior Assistant Professor at the Amity Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies, cautions against treating Flávio Bolsonaro's first-round lead as decisive. 'The polls on Sunday showed that Flavio Bolsonaro has taken some lead over the veteran and incumbent President Lula, but it is important to remember that these polls are conducted among a miniscule sample size of the actual 160 million people who are eligible to vote,' she says.

Pointing to Lula's narrow victory over Jair Bolsonaro in the previous election, Pandey said: 'It is not beyond the ambit of reason to believe that the election still could go either way.'

The congressional result could prove equally important. Dr Arnab Chakrabarty, Research Fellow at the Indian Council of World Affairs, described it as a 'political earthquake.

'By outperforming expectations, Flávio Bolsonaro hasn't just forced incumbent President Lula into a gruelling runoff; he has effectively captured the keys to the country's legislative engine. The legislature is now firmly anchored to the right, severely limiting the leftist government's ability to pass tax reforms, environmental regulations, or social welfare expansions,' he said.

For India, the central question is how a Bolsonaro presidency would change Brazil's external orientation. Viswanathan believes New Delhi would lose an important partner if Lula is replaced. 'India would lose Brazil as an ally and global strategic partner on issues of the world. Bolsonaro would not be pro-India as Lula was. Brazil would become pro-Trump and exit BRICS and Global South.'

Pandey frames the wider geopolitical choice this way: 'The result of this election will decide whether Brazil will sit squarely in the proverbial American backyard, or will it be out of it.'

Viswanathan also expects pressure on China's extensive economic presence in Brazil. 'China would be under pressure to reduce its large economic presence. It would be discriminated against participation in future projects…This would open up opportunities for Indian companies to increase exports and expand their business in Latin America.'

The Amazon is another major issue. Chakrabarty believes a Bolsonaro government backed by a pro-agribusiness Congress could put environmental protections under pressure. 'With a pro-agribusiness Congress behind him, Flávio would likely roll back Amazon protections, echoing his father's policies.'

Pandey similarly sees the election as critical for the rainforest. 'It would decide if the Amazon survives or gets turned into grazing lands.'

The election is also part of a broader rightward shift in Latin America. Chakrabarty believes a Bolsonaro victory could strengthen a conservative axis in South America and bring Brazil closer to governments such as Argentina's Javier Milei. Viswanathan says the shift is part of a longer political cycle. 'The Latin American rightist wave is just part of the cyclical politics of Latin America,' he says.

The October 25 runoff will therefore decide not only who governs Brazil, but also how it positions itself between Washington and Beijing and whether it remains closely engaged with BRICS and the Global South.

For India, that makes the outcome important both politically and economically.