The sharp rise in diesel prices triggered by the Iran war is expected to speed up the electrification of China's heavy truck industry, analysts and automakers say, accelerating the country's move away from fossil fuels.
Electric heavy truck sales in China have surged over the past two years, growing from a niche segment into nearly a third of all new heavy truck purchases in 2025. The expansion has been driven by government subsidies, lower operating costs, and a rapidly expanding charging network.
According to data provider CVWorld.cn, sales of new-energy heavy trucks mostly electric models jumped 45% year-on-year to 44,000 units in the opening months of 2026. These vehicles now account for more than a quarter of all heavy truck sales, up from less than 20% a year earlier.
Analysts say soaring fuel costs are strengthening the economic case for electric trucks.
'The war has driven up domestic fuel prices in China, which will inevitably accelerate the replacement of traditional trucks,' said Min Ji, senior analyst at S&P Global Mobility.
China's retail diesel prices have risen 27% since the Iran conflict began on February 28, reaching their highest levels since record peaks seen four years ago.
CVWorld.cn expects April sales of electric heavy trucks to rise another 30%, supported by stronger seasonal demand and elevated oil prices.
The rapid expansion of electric and liquefied natural gas-powered trucks is contributing to a broader slowdown in China's fuel consumption.
Most analysts already expect China's oil demand to peak before 2030, but some energy consultancies now believe diesel use could decline even faster than previously forecast.
GL Consulting expects diesel consumption to fall 4.3% this year, while Rystad Energy forecasts a 5% decline equivalent to around 40,000 barrels per day more than earlier estimates.
The shift reflects China's wider transition towards electrification across both passenger and commercial transport sectors.
Although electric heavy trucks remain more expensive upfront, their long-term operating costs are significantly lower.
Electric heavy trucks in China typically cost over 500,000 yuan ($73,500), compared to more than 300,000 yuan for diesel versions. However, government trade-in subsidies can reduce much of that price gap.
Analysts at GL Consulting estimate that the total lifetime cost of operating an electric truck over one million kilometres is roughly half that of a diesel equivalent at current fuel prices.
Most electric heavy trucks currently operate on short-haul industrial routes with ranges of around 300 kilometres, though manufacturers are increasingly launching models capable of travelling up to 600 kilometres on a single charge.
The cost advantage is also helping Chinese manufacturers expand into overseas markets, particularly Europe.
According to the International Energy Agency, China sold around 160,000 electric trucks in 2024, compared to fewer than 25,000 in Europe.
Reuters reported earlier this year that more than a dozen Chinese manufacturers, including leading brand Sany Group
, plan to launch electric truck sales in Europe at prices up to one-third lower than current market averages.
Sany executive Chen Dong said the company already expected electric truck demand to grow rapidly in 2026, but rising oil prices are now increasing the likelihood of even stronger growth.
(with inputs from Reuters)