India's economic model is undergoing a structural break, and the country's middle class must prepare for years of disruption instead of expecting a quick recovery, according to investment expert Saurabh Mukherjea.
He argues that artificial intelligence, automation, and the collapse of the white-collar employment boom are fundamentally changing the way Indians will work, earn, and build wealth in the coming decades.
Speaking to The Federal, Saurabh Mukherjea, founder and Chief Investment Officer of Marcellus Investment Managers and co-author of Breakpoint, said the country has reached a turning point where long-established economic trends are beginning to reverse. He believes the transition will be painful, but could eventually create the conditions for a manufacturing-led revival.
Mukherjea made these observations during a conversation with Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay on The Federal Conversations.
Why 'Breakpoint'?
Mukherjea explained that the title of his book reflects what economists describe as a "break point"-a moment when long-term trends abruptly change direction.
According to him, multiple indicators that shaped India's middle-class prosperity began weakening between 2018 and 2021. He pointed to white-collar employment as the clearest example. For nearly three decades after the economic reforms of 1991, white-collar jobs doubled roughly every six years. That trend, he argued, has now almost disappeared.
Third, Mukherjea urged citizens to lower their expectations from governments. He argued that technological change and globalisation have substantially reduced the ability of governments to create jobs or shield people from economic disruption. While politicians will continue making promises, he said individuals must increasingly rely on their own skills, savings, and adaptability to navigate the changing economy.
Mukherjea acknowledged that his assessment may appear pessimistic, but insisted it is grounded in economic data presented in Breakpoint.
He argued that while India faces difficult years ahead, the disruption could ultimately lay the foundation for a stronger manufacturing economy and new forms of employment better suited to a technology-driven world.
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