The failure of the two traditionally leading parties has led to the incremental rise of smaller and new parties, which poses a conundrum for the FPTP system.

In 2024 Labour realised just 33.7% of the national vote yet they secured 63% of seats in the House of Commons, 411 MP's out of 650. An alternative is moving to proportional representation, in which Labour would only have received 219 seats in 2024 and ReformUK would have realised 91 seats as they received 14.3% of the vote, not just 5 seats. This example shows Labour's majority is much more fragile in 2029, especially when the inevitable vote splitting is taken into account.

The Labour Party is seen as incompetent, weak and untrustworthy. Their popularity has dropped to 17%, many Labour voters are dissatisfied with the leadership of Keir Starmer. Following the anticipated disastrous 7 May 2026 byelections when Labour is expected to lose 2,200 local council seats, the Prime Minister's leadership is likely to be challenged by Angela Rayner, Shabana Mahmood and Ed Miliband. So far the media reports 15 Starmer U-turns, mostly on decisions originating from the Treasury, plus the persecution of farmers, the no-ships to defend Cyprus Akrotiri base, the prospect of extending Indefinite Leave to Remain retrospectively (that will permit the millions of immigrants that Boris Johnson allowed in to remain in UK), and the great reset with the EU have not helped Starmer in the polls. In the recent Gorton and Denton byelection, a suburb of Manchester, the Greens were first post the post in a 5-party byelection, aided by the Muslim Vote (an organisation that brings together Muslim organisations to make the Muslim vote count); the Greens realised almost as many seats as Labour lost. Labour are in the process of extending voting rights to 16- and 17-year olds in a bid for their support. A regrettable situation in the UK is that about 53% of households of working age receive more in benefits than they pay in taxes, this net-dependency is the highest on record claim the Cllvitas Office for National Statistics, which will only increase as inflation rises.

Despite Kemi Badenoch's efforts and improved performances at the Despatch Box, supporters have not forgiven the Conservative Party for the ineffectualness of the last 4 Tory Prime Ministers; polling hovers around 20%, on 7 May the party is forecast to lose 1,000 local council seats to ReformUK. Challenges to Badenoch's leadership are unlikely until nearer to a general election, and probably not from the familiar Conservative cast, possibly from newer and lesser known Tories such as Katie Lam, whose profile is centred around her views on Islam and immigration.

ReformUK is polling well between 24-30% despite suspected internal party chaos. A range of fully costed, substantive policies are lacking. The Scottish born Zia Yusuf, the argumentative spokesperson for Home Affairs and wannabe Home Secretary, cannot resist picking fights with the Conservative Party; he recently said he would stop visas for people from countries demanding slavery reparations. ReformUK's London mayoral candidate is not a success, too much auto-cue and not enough substance, the Croydon major campaign is not going well either. ReformUK are on their 4th Candidate. Croydon is an important borough which will decide the trajectory in the suburbs. This backs up the claims that ReformUK's internal structure is a muddle. ReformUK now have 8 former Tory Ministers in their ranks. It is not clear who heads policy development-Danny Kruger, James Orr, Zia Yusuf? They are excellent at critiquing the other parties but never say what they will do differently. Farage has distanced ReformUK from President Trump over Ukraine. Due to military incapacity he has not supported UK joining the war in Iran, he said the Navy had been run down by Conservative and Labour Parties and was now virtually inoperable. Farage has simultaneously supported Starmer in not "joining" the war and said UK should be supporting the Americans. Reform not only have attracted traditional conservative voters but also significant number of the white working class and some Greens. Farage positions ReformUK as the definitive party of the Right who will fix "Broken Britain", he wants to obliterate the Conservative Party competition, fortunately for Farage folks respond to disparagement of Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer.

Enter Rupert Lowe with the Restore Britain Party, which promises to live up to its name. Lowe continues to generate engagement over his immigration and deportation policies. A former Conservative supporter, Ex-reform MP, a Christian family man, a farmer, Great Yarmouth Independent MP, Ex-Southampton FC Chairman, businessman and former-MEP, he has led the private inquiry exposing the predominantly Pakistani/Bangladeshi rape gangs in Britain and the cover-up. As a former member of ReformUK the enmity between Farage and Lowe is apparent, it is impossible to imagine a reconciliation. Hypothesis abound for an uncomfortable Restore Britain-Conservative coalition but the Tories would have to change a lot to justify this. Perhaps Lowe could wait for a new more radically aligned leader like Katie Lam?

Zack Polanski has been topical since the Gorton and Denton byelection with a 40.7% win and his debut conference in Croydon where he outlined his green credentials for cleaner air, safer streets and better transport. Other policies are punitive taxes on billionaires, more compassion-equality-diversity-welfare, and bringing back nationalisation. Polanski appeared at the Palestine Coalition March against the war last month, combining his eco-activism with the civil-disobedience movement, Extinction Rebellion and his confrontational style. He is leading the alternative for Britain's left-wing. He is from the Zohran Mamdani, Humza Yousuf school of politics, but with a more smiley, casual manner that appeals to young people with no experience or knowledge of communism, who believe they are doing the right thing for humanity, voting for fairness and inclusivity.

Jeremy Corbyn and Zarrah Sultana's Your Party will further split the Labour vote as they have decided to support the independent candidates in Tower Hamlets, Manchester and Birmingham for the byelections. The Guardian quotes a pollster, "Controversy over policy in the Middle East ate into Labour support at the 2024 general election. That issue could hurt [Labour] again, with pro-Gaza Independents looking to make symbolic gains in Newham and Redbridge."

Although Liberal Democrat success seems to have peaked at 72 MPs, leader Ed Davey's clownish antics continue to appeal to his supporters, LibDems are all for the great reset with the EU, an unlikely coalition with Labour is not beyond the realms of imagination.

The fragmentation expected in the 7 May byelections might provoke debates about what it means to be British and about further electoral reform. The argument is that a more proportional system suits multi-parties with different democratic preferences better, however, in May 2011 the public rejected this idea, 68% against vs 32% for, with a 41% turnout when David Cameron put it to the test in the United Kingdom Alternative Vote referendum.