The Bengali Hindu middle-class urban gentry, known as the Bhadralok, has by and large remained with Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress since she came to power in 2011. Though, they dislike Muslims, most were not adherents of BJP's overt Hindu ideology until recently.
But indications now suggest that many are now shifting to the BJP.
The speculation about the Bhadralok vote shifting to the BJP from Mamata's fold has been in the political discourse and drawing room conversations of Kolkata and other urban centres of Bengal since the West Bengal Assembly election was announced.
In recent weeks, many in Kolkata and other towns have been vocal about their criticism of Mamata and have been openly raising the anti-incumbency issues afflicting the TMC government by highlighting its failures in the health, education, law and order sectors and the ruling party's rampant corruption that has been institutionalised under the TMC.
Many are fed-up of the TMC for raising the BJP bogey at regular intervals to hide its own failure. Mamata - banking on Bengali 'Asmita' - has scared people that if the BJP forms a government in Bengal, it will interfere with their food habits, dressing preferences as well as religious and cultural choices.
The TMC campaign has forced the BJP leaders to visit the fish market and buy fish, while Amit Shah and other Central leaders of the party tried to assure people there will be no restriction in their customs and lifestyle if the BJP came to power.
The Bhadralok class is not confined to Kolkata, but is spread over the six other municipal corporations and 121 municipalities across West Bengal.
"One should never downplay their importance. A conversation that begins in Kolkata can often travel across the state and help in forming an opinion that affects a political party," says Nirmalya Mukherjee, a city-based political analyst.
For instance, the Bhadralok dominated 120 seats in Kolkata and the urban and industrial areas surrounding it had heavily voted in Mamata's favour in the 2021 Assembly election. Barring eight seats that the BJP won, the TMC had swept the remaining 112 seats.
The TMC's performance was similar in most other municipal areas. However, whether the TMC can repeat that performance in this year’s Assembly election, remains a big question.
The shift towards the BJP, however, is not due to a strong 'saffron wave' blowing across the state. Barring North Bengal and pockets of Rarh Bengal, where a strong pro-Hindu wave has attracted voters, the BJP is also gaining ground in South Bengal, a region with most Assembly seats and a Mamata stronghold, because of voters' anger against the TMC.
A range of issues from the potato and the jute crises, anger over unsuitable candidates, in-fighting in the TMC and increasing arrogant behaviour of party leaders, have forced a shift towards the BJP turning it into a viable alternative to Mamata in areas where it had a tenuous presence until recently.
Since the first phase of voting on April 23 that registered a record turnout of over 91 per cent votes for the 152 seats that went to poll, both the BJP and the TMC are trying to convince people that it had gone in their favour.
Amit Shah and TMC's Abhishek Banerjee both claimed their parties have crossed the 100 mark with ease.
The second and final phase will go to polls for the remaining 142 seats on April 29. If Mamata can stem the flow of the Bhadralok voters towards the BJP and retain most of her traditional vote bank, she can still put up a strong challenge to the BJP's rising popularity in West Bengal.
But even if she succeeds in doing that, her victory in the 2026 Assembly will also depend on how well her party has performed in districts that went to polls in the first phase of the election.