It is a million-dollar question what fate awaits Shiv Sena leader Eknath Shinde, the brand the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) built up to demolish Uddhav Thackeray's party.

The deputy chief minister of Maharashtra once said a 'Maha Shakti' - the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) - was standing behind him. But things are a little different now. The BJP has all but established one-party rule across India. And in politics, every such action breeds a reaction.

That is why the talk in Mumbai's corridors of power is no longer grudgingly admiring of Shinde's tactics, which always seemed to strengthen his party. Now the discussion is about whether he will still get room to negotiate with Delhi, as the BJP is less likely to tolerate an ally, much less a competitor, in Maharashtra politics. The answer is written on the walls of Vidhan Bhavan in invisible ink.

The recent buzz was that the BJP and Shiv Sena were bargaining over the sharing of 17 Maharashtra Legislative Council seats elected by urban local bodies and local authorities. It is said Union Home Minister Amit Shah ultimately accommodated Shinde's demands, but granted him an audience only after a long wait. Their meeting finally took place last week, but reportedly required the intervention of a former Maharashtra minister and education baron, who sat through the discussion. This is strange, as Shinde used to be the most frequent visitor to Delhi in the past.

Reports also say that Shinde eventually secured a better deal than initially offered, which may fuel resentment within the BJP in the run-up to the elections on 18 June.

BJP on strong wicket

Freshly renewed after sweeping recent state assembly elections, conceding Shinde's demands is perhaps no longer a priority for the BJP. The question is, if the central leadership and Shah no longer back him as they once did, will Shinde still thrive? He will certainly do well in Thane, his pocket borough. Besides, Ajit Pawar's death has removed a major Mahayuti (comprising the BJP, Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party) ally and Maratha leader, increasing Shinde's relative importance within the alliance.

But at the same time, the BJP is still handling the infighting within Mahayuti - Shinde and Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis don't see eye-to-eye. Truth be told, Shinde may have had his moment of glory, but it was four years ago, when as Shiv Sena leader he led a rebellion to evict Thackeray from power by splitting the Sena sixty years after Bal Thackeray founded it.

Even so, he had to concede the chief ministership to the BJP’s own, Fadnavis, after two years in the seat following the 2022 Shiv Sena split. What is more, the BJP nearly achieved an independent majority in the Maharashtra polls at the time, while the opposition won fewer than 50 seats in the 288-member house.

Shinde did make an impression as an action-oriented chief minister and went all out in terms of public engagement during his time in the top seat. He is a pugnacious fighter whose rise is said to be the result of his 'rada' -aggression. So, when Fadnavis took over, he cancelled some of Shinde’s policy decisions, cutting the persona around the man down to size.

Still, Shinde and the BJP were on the same page when it came to trumpeting Hindutva. That was a natural outcome of the twelve years of dogged backing that the Shiv Sena leader got from the saffron party. When Uddhav sidelined Shinde in his government (and on party matters) and promoted his son Aditya instead, he was raring for revenge. The BJP grabbed the opportunity.

Even the image of a Thane auto rickshaw-driver-turned-loyal-Shivsainik was designed by the BJP to unsettle the mythology surrounding Uddhav, who carried the Thackeray name. And it worked.

Is Shinde an asset or liability for the BJP?

Shinde is certainly an asset for the BJP, but one that will always require top-tier maintenance. The fighter in him will not countenance the BJP just dumping him or absorbing his party into the BJP. He is the NDA's Maratha strongman at a time when the community feels rudderless after the loss of Ajit Pawar and the marginalisation of Sharad Pawar.

Shinde also has much goodwill within the opposition camp in Maharashtra, and a rare rapport with Sharad Pawar. Recall that the two would hold long private discussions when Shinde was chief minister from June 2022 to December 2024. Once, in response to Pawar's queries on administrative matters, Shinde had ordered secretaries of all ministries to be present at their lengthy meeting.

So what can the BJP do about Shinde? Letting him go would boost the dilapidated opposition. Accommodating him would make him a rallying point within the NDA. Seen from the BJP's point of view, the Shinde brand cannot last forever - just until the saffron party can become numero uno in Maharashtra politics.