The constitutional amendment bill envisaged advancing women's reservation from the 2029 elections and increasing the seat limit in Lok Sabha from the current 550 to 850 while two other bills dealt with delimitation. BJP took up rallies across the country to paint the Opposition as the main stumbling block for women's quota. Prime Minister Narendra Modi even addressed the nation, pinning the blame on the Congress. He even tendered an apology for not getting the women's quota bill approved. The Telugu Desam Party (TDP), a key part of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), is planning a special session of the Andhra Pradesh Assembly in the first week of May to expose the Congress-lead INDIA alliance on the issue. This aggressive campaign will obviously continue in future, including the 2029 General Elections.

But why did the Opposition, especially Congress, oppose the key bill on women's quota in legislative bodies? The fear of losing the 2029 polls seemed to have forced them to stall the bill as the contentious exercise of re-drawing Lok Sabha constituencies could turn advantageous to the ruling BJP. In her Lok Sabha speech, Congress leader and Wayanad MP Priyanka Gandhi even hinted at the advantage the BJP would get through delimitation.

But is gerrymandering possible if BJP is allowed to go about the delimitation exercise? There are some chances.

I happened to meet an active leader of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) in Amethi during the 2019 elections. He asked me as to why the Owaisi family has been winning the Hyderabad Lok Sabha seat consistently. I told him that a majority of Assembly constituencies in Hyderabad LS seat are dominated by Muslims and that's the reason why the Owaisi family-led All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) wins the seat in every election. The next part of the conversation surprised me. "We will see how AIMIM will win the seat after the reorganisation of Lok Sabha seats. We will see to it that the Muslim vote base in the constituency is split and spread among other nearby constituencies," he told me. Such things are bound to happen when a ruling party has the chance to undertake delimitation of the constituencies. Congress benefitted and its seats increased nationwide after the 2008 delimitation exercise. It was in power at the Centre then.

Anyway, the opposition parties escaped from the delimitation threat for the time being by defeating the bill in Lok Saha's special session on April 17. But they will invariably face the same threat if BJP wins the 2029 polls. However, the loss they incur due to the defeat of women's quota bill will be much more than the loss they would have suffered due to the delimitation. For, BJP wanted a big political narrative for its future elections, including the 2029 polls. It has got it in the form of a failed women's quota bill. The saffron party saw its tally reduced to 240 in Lok Sabha in the 2024 elections and one of the primary reasons for the fall was Uttar Pradesh where its tally was reduced significantly.

This women's quota issue will come in handy for it. For the BJP to secure a fourth consecutive victory at the Centre in 2029, it must regain its lost ground in Uttar Pradesh.

In West Bengal, the saffron party is in a see-saw battle with the Mamata Banerjee-led TMC. Congress, which is contesting on its own in all constituencies, garnered around three per cent vote share in 2021 when it had an alliance with the Left Front. There may be an immediate fallout of the women's quota issue in the West Bengal elections. Is BJP expecting some votes from Congress and Left parties to shift to it? Women voters have solidly stood behind Mamta Banerjee all these years. Attracting a small percentage of that base will do a world of good to the BJP.

Going by the developments, BJP brought the key amendment bill, knowing fully well that it would fail. That's in fact what it wanted. If BJP wanted the bill to pass through, itwould have called for an all-party meeting and tried for a consensus. The saffron party did not do that as it wanted the Opposition to fall into its trap by voting against the key amendment bill.

The ideal thing for the Congress-led Opposition was to support the women's reservation bill by demanding that the government make amendments to the delimitation bill so that no state will lose its share of representation in the Lok Sabha. A uniform 50 per cent increase in the number of seats by taking states and union territories as units would have taken care of the concerns raised as regards southern and smaller states. That would have been the ideal strategy for the Opposition. That did not happen and BJP gained upper hand in the whole episode.

The Prime Minister himself indicated in his speech in the Lok Sabha that the NDA had nothing to lose even if the Opposition stalled the women's quota bill. He went on to say that the NDA would benefit more if the bill was not passed. It's clear that political rhetoric won't work with the Prime Minister, who plans his political strategies much ahead of his opponents. The problem with the Leader of Opposition and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi is that he still fails to understand the strategies of Modi and so falls into the trap of the Gujarat strongman time and again.

Of course, there is a positive take-away for the Congress as well. The women's quota bill brought all opposition parties together and this unity is a big achievement for Rahul Gandhi, the Congress and INDIA bloc. That's true. However, given the way the alliance functioned in the last few years, there is no guarantee that they will stand together in future. For the unity to continue, Congress needs to walk the extra mile and accommodate allies keeping its strength in view in all states. It could have contested in West Bengal in alliance with TMC, agreeing even to a smaller number of seats. That did not happen. But the fact of the matter is that an alliance led by Congress can only pose a threat to Modi in the 2029 polls. That's for sure. But the alliance should stand united, ready to make sacrifices wherever required and go to polls unitedly.

For the time being, the BJP is in the driver's seat when it comes to political narratives that can tilt electoral scales in its favour. That's an undeniable truth. The Congress-led Opposition should take the blame for it.

But what are the consequences now? People of the country will have to wait till 2034 for women's quota and the delimitation exercise. Though political parties and leaders are eagerly waiting for an increase inseats in legislative bodies, that will not happen for next eight years unless BJP changes its stand. Further, southern states will lose more if the delimitation is taken up based on the 2026 Census. The political parties and politicians who played a key role in the women's quota bill's defeat should take blame for that.

But the most disheartening part is that we are still debating about new reservations for this group or that group even though the country is nearing its 80th year of Independence. Political reservations benefit just a few families. It is good to have political reservations for SCs/STs given the discrimination they faced in society in the past. However, other groups don't need reservations in the political space. But political parties and politicians are raising demands for new reservations to meet their selfish ends. That's the sad truth.